PVC prices gradually recover Weak fundamentals limit the room for rebound

Futures market: as of 12.
27, the main PVC closed at 6333 yuan / ton (+48); Top 20 main long positions: 350921 (-1756) Short positions: 412111 (-1961); Net position: 61190 (-205).

Spot: as of 12.
27 East China (calcium carbide method) quotation: 6200 yuan / ton (+110); South China (calcium carbide method) quotation: 6265 yuan / ton (+100).

Blue charcoal: as of 12.
27, Shaanxi 1366 yuan / ton (0).

calcium carbide: as of 12.
27 North China 4100 yuan / ton (0).

With the recent gradual recovery of PVC prices, the gradual improvement of upstream production profits, the recovery of operating rate, and the increase in new investment capacity, the supply is gradually recovering
month-on-month.
Demand is generally light due to the off-season downstream and the domestic holiday approaching, resulting in an aggravation
of the risk of accumulation of domestic social inventory.
The demand expectation side continued to improve, due to the increase in export orders of some manufacturers and the active pre-sale of goods around the Spring Festival by some enterprises, the overall pre-sale orders of PVC manufacturers increased, which strengthened the support
for futures prices.
At present, the pattern of PVC weak reality and strong expectations has not changed, and we believe that weak fundamentals limit PVC rebound space
.
It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, focusing on the effective digestion
of inventories by the real recovery of domestic demand after the year.