PVC prices are falling rapidly, and the overall market is oversupplied

In July, the maintenance of enterprises was further reduced, and the start of construction or continued to recover
in a narrow range.
In June, the maintenance of the plant was more concentrated, and the PVC output was 1.
8126 million tons, down 6.
94% from the previous month, and the output will rebound in July, and the overall pressure on PVC supply is not large
.

Last week's upstream starts, which were about 0.
5 percentage points lower than the previous year, were at the lowest level
of previous years, under the maintenance of some factories.
In terms of cost and profit, calcium carbide method and ethylene method both fell below the cost line
when spot prices continued to fall.
In terms of demand, the performance of domestic near-end demand is still poor, social inventory continues to accumulate about 2.
5 percentage points, downstream product enterprises are currently more inventories, enthusiasm for starting work has declined, at a year-on-year low, in terms of exports, Asian market demand in July is bearish, demand overall maintained a weak trend
.

From the perspective of supply and demand in the third quarter, domestic production in August and September rebounded more obviously year-on-year, and the current export is expected to
weaken.
In the unlikely case of a significant improvement in domestic demand, the market is still mainly the logic of
supply-side expectations.
And from the perspective of the industrial chain, the current calcium carbide price has fallen to a low level, only the external mining equipment has a loss, and the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali is still good
.
On the whole, after the rapid decline in the early stage, the bearish factors have basically been reflected
.

Looking forward to the future market, because the oversupply of the overall industrial chain first stems from the weakening of downstream starts and export seasonality, and the current fundamentals have no variables for the time being to cause anti-seasonal destocking, coupled with the reduction of maintenance equipment in July on the supply side and the high level of spot inventory, the overall oversupply of the PVC market will continue, and its weakness is difficult
to reverse 。 On the other hand, the current price has fallen below the theoretical cost line of some purchased calcium carbide enterprises, in addition, the price of caustic soda in some areas has fallen slightly, and the degree of "alkali chlorine raising" in the factory may be reduced, so in the future, some devices may be reduced due to losses, thereby slightly alleviating the situation of oversupply in the market, and will also form a certain support
for the price.