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As of 8.
10, PVC prices fluctuated weakly, and the market focused on the US July CPI data
.
The supply of goods in the spot market was generally stable
.
The downstream market maintains the rhythm of just needing replenishment, receiving goods in the right amount at the dip, and the operation is more cautious
.
The demand side has formed a certain drag, and the current off-season is superimposed on the epidemic in some regions, and PVC demand is not
expected to weaken in the short term.
Futures market: as of 8.
10, the main PVC closed at 6694 yuan / ton, down 0.
7% from the previous month; Top 20 main long positions: 236544 (-13692), short positions: 250894 (-14084), net short positions: 14350 (-1832).
Spot: as of 8.
10 days East China (calcium carbide method) quotation: 6650 yuan / ton (-80); South China (calcium carbide method) quotation: 6715 yuan / ton (-95).
Basis: East China basis -44 yuan / ton as of 8.
10 days; South China basis +21 yuan/ton; Slightly weaker
than the previous day.
Blue charcoal: As of 8.
10, Shaanxi quoted 1240 yuan / ton, no price change
from yesterday.
calcium carbide: As of 8.
10, North China quoted 4500 yuan / ton, no price change
from yesterday.
The US unseasonally adjusted CPI in July increased by 8.
5% year-on-year, compared with an expected increase of 8.
7% and a previous increase of 9.
1%.
The US unseasonally adjusted core CPI rose 5.
9% year-on-year in July, compared with an expected increase of 6.
1% and a 5.
9%
increase in the previous month.
U.
S.
inflation has temporarily retreated, but is still close to its highest level
since the early 80s.
International crude oil futures fell under pressure, driving the chemical sector to weaken
.
The building materials sector has strengthened in the short term due to the "guaranteed delivery" policy, but considering the poor real estate data in the medium and long term, it is difficult to effectively boost demand, and the building materials sector fell
sharply overnight.
The supply side of PVC remains at a high level, the social inventory continues to be high, and the demand side is difficult to effectively boost by the impact of real estate in the medium and long term
.
Fundamentals remain weak
.
The focus is now on the July US CPI data, which if it continues to reach new highs will strengthen Fed rate hike expectations as well as recession expectations
.
In the short term, we should be wary of the market's speculation about interest rate hike expectations; From a domestic point of view, although there is stable growth and guaranteed delivery of buildings to boost market confidence, the implementation of the policy remains to be seen
.
At present, inventory and demand have not yet seen an inflection point, and PVC fundamentals are still under pressure
.
Maintain a cautious view on the trend of PVC and maintain a wait-and-see
view.
