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On March 30, the average domestic spot price of PVC5 type was 9020 yuan / ton, up 0.
22% from the previous trading day and 2.
79%
year-on-year.
The market is strong, the upward trend of futures drives the spot market to raise the atmosphere, the holders' offer is raised, the market is shipped with the market, the market center of gravity is shifted, but the price pushes up after the downstream inquiry is general, cautious wait-and-see people are most, and the high price transaction is general
.
On the supply side, although the price increase of upstream blue charcoal-calcium carbide is expected to be disappointed, the current round of blue charcoal-calcium carbide premium is basically in place, and the start of PVC is still limited by the calcium carbide start ceiling
.
The new production capacity is limited, and the existing equipment pays attention to the fulfillment of the spring inspection
.
On the demand side, the marginal relaxation of real estate policy, PVC long-term demand is expected to improve, but short-term demand is still poor, resulting in PVC destocking in March is completely less than expected, follow-up attention to the actual improvement of demand time, the current forecast from March to June demand growth rate continues to be conservative in negative growth
.
In terms of exports, India's demand was strong, and China's export window continued to open, contributing to the improvement
in demand.
On the inventory side, the pressure on inventory in real society is still large, and the pressure is mainly concentrated in the midstream traders
.
The willingness to stock downstream raw materials is poor, and the upstream pre-sale situation is also general
.
In terms of balance sheet forecast, the expectation of destocking in March has been disappointed, and the expected medium range of destocking in April is on the one hand, focusing on the fulfillment of spring inspection, and on the other hand, paying attention to the improvement of
downstream demand.
From May to June, it is flat to slightly destocked
.
At present, the divergence point of PVC lies in the contradiction between weak short-term demand and long-term demand improvement expectations, the fundamentals are still under the weak reality and strong expectations, there are no obvious driving factors, and it is expected that the short-term PVC market will operate
steadily and strongly.
