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With the start of the Saudi Arabian and Russian crude oil price war, Nenghua set off another wave of ups and downs, and PVC played an extremely strong role in it, closing 3 consecutive white lines after the gap to recover the decline
.
But then the decline of crude oil gradually passed to aromatics and olefin chemicals, at this time the market slowly did not begin to believe in the expectations of the far month real estate, a large shorting reality, foreign epidemic comprehensive deterioration, and in last year PVC anti-dumping duty was canceled, PVC has a low-cost foreign ethylene law impact domestic concerns, and then began to gradually collapse, making up for the decline of the previous chemical sector
.
On the supply side, under the impact of the epidemic, production shrank sharply in February, but due to the impact of the epidemic, demand is expected to be greatly reduced, and a large number of foreign goods may flow into China in April; On the demand side, real estate starts due to the impact of the epidemic, real estate starts in February were almost 0, resulting in a continuous increase in social inventory, but the future of real estate remains optimistic, infrastructure, recent relevant policy documents and the expansion of special debt quota, it is expected that infrastructure investment will also maintain stable or staged outbreak potential
.
Cost profit: the breakdown of negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Russia and the impact of the epidemic have caused the price of crude oil to plummet to around $20, resulting in a decline in ethylene costs, the current ethylene cost is about 4200 yuan / ton, while the cost of calcium carbide in the northwest region is about 4900-5100 yuan / ton, the cost of ethylene is much lower than calcium carbide, and the profit of ethylene process enterprises is better
.
At present, the PVC calcium carbide method has a high marginal cost, the space below PVC is still limited, perhaps the upstream concentrated production reduction will be a relatively clear bottom signal, but in the short term still do not see enough drive to support the rebound, and when the international epidemic will peak is unknown, the impact of this round of epidemic on the economy and demand may develop beyond imagination in the future, so although the current price has been relatively low, but the bottom is still
high-risk.
