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Since the beginning of 2020, PVC has declined as a whole, the center of gravity has fallen significantly, and the price in January has formed a large gap
with the price in February.
In January, PVC futures slowed down to gains near the previous high after a narrow range of intraday gains
.
Due to the lack of favorable penetration, PVC failed to break upward, and the futures price fell under pressure, made rational adjustments, and gradually fell back to run
below the five-day moving average.
With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, investors' enthusiasm for participation has decreased significantly, gradually leaving the market, PVC has fallen into a deadlock and sorted out the trend, and the price fluctuation range has narrowed significantly
.
Affected by major public health emergencies, on the first trading day after returning from the Spring Festival holiday, PVC jumped sharply and opened low, and the center of gravity fell directly back to near
the 6000 mark.
With the easing of risk aversion, PVC gradually stopped falling, the center of gravity stabilized and rebounded, and its performance in chemicals was relatively strong, ushering in a wave of slight rebound
.
Downstream demand is difficult to follow, PVC upward weakness, recovered to the 6300 mark began to extend
horizontally.
International oil prices fell continuously, driving the collective weakening of chemicals, PVC followed the downward, but the overall decline was not large, and showed a low shock trend
after the holiday.
The PVC industry has obvious off-peak seasons, which mainly occur from November to March of the following year
.
Around the Spring Festival is the season with the lightest demand, the Spring Festival is generally in February, generally into January began to have a holiday phenomenon, after mid-January downstream holidays began to increase significantly, after the Spring Festival downstream products began to start work one after another, generally around the beginning of March most products enterprises have recovered
.
After April, the market has ushered in the peak demand season, but July-August is a hot month, the operating rate of product enterprises will decline slightly, and the demand will improve
again in September-October.
The proportion of PVC downstream products has not changed much, and pipes/fittings, profiles/doors and windows are in an important position, which is the main driving force
for the growth of PVC demand.
The impact of environmental protection policies on the start of downstream product factories has not been reduced, and the start of large enterprises is relatively stable
.
Under the continuous deepening of real estate policy regulation, the real estate sales data is sluggish, which has a certain negative impact
on PVC building materials products that rely on real estate consumption.
Technically, PVC2009 main contract, daily level analysis, the continuous negative action of the plate this week has eased, recently K line continued to open high, but did not get out of the weak pattern, the pressure of the average turn still exists, the short-term upside is not optimistic, it is expected that the probability of the rebound after the pressure to maintain the shock is greater, it is recommended to wait and see in the near future, or you can choose short-term trading
within the range.
