PVC narrow finishing has limited room for rebound in the short term

In terms of news: the operating rate of PVC production enterprises in this cycle was 75.
47%, down 1.
78% from last week and 0.
96% from last year; Among them, the start of calcium carbide method decreased by 1.
39% month-on-month and increased by 1.
60% year-on-year; The ethylene method decreased by 3.
75% month-on-month and 12.
53%
year-on-year.

Spot market: the market price of Qilu Chemical City was slightly adjusted, the price of calcium carbide type 5 was 6640 yuan / ton (Xinfa excluding tax 6180, Tianye excluding tax 6200 yuan / ton), ethylene Qilu material price S700 quotation excluding tax 6670 yuan / ton, S1000 quotation excluding tax 6520 yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Exchange warehouse receipts reported 4419 lots, intraday -400 lots, in the historical high area
.
Main positions: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 117926 lots, -669 lots, short positions are 101317 lots, -887 lots, and the net position is 16609 lots, a net long increase
.

Summary: The start of production enterprises has risen steadily, output has increased, the supply of PVC spot market is sufficient, the pressure of calcium carbide transportation has been eased, the market supply is sufficient, and the price has weakened
.
The weakening of cost support for PVC and Taiwan's downward revision of its November sailing schedule quotation are negative for PVC
.
However, the recovery of crude oil has boosted the confidence of market investors, and the recent accident in Inner Mongolia Sanlian Chemical is expected to lead to production suspension, which is also good for PVC
.
The future market will pay attention to whether China's anti-dumping of the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will continue after the expiration of anti-dumping
.
It is expected that the space for PVC rebound in the short term is limited
.
Operationally, it is recommended that investors operate
in the range of 6350-6450.