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On April 22, the average domestic spot price of PVC 5 type was 8950 yuan / ton, down 0.
11% from the previous trading day and up 0.
85%
year-on-year.
Futures prices fell, suppressing market sentiment, spot market quotations fell, market transactions were general, and logistics in many places were not smooth, raw material prices were lowered, and the industry's cautious wait-and-see attitude was not reduced
.
Up to now, the price of raw calcium carbide is about 4000-4100 yuan / ton, and the price of PVC is 8700-9150 yuan / ton
.
At present, PVC demand performance is relatively weak, supply and demand side is weak, spot price range volatility, later with PVC maintenance concentration and demand recovery, it is expected that the fundamentals will gradually improve, macro also has some support, so the expectation is relatively optimistic, but still need to pay close attention to the specific recovery of the demand side
.
In April, the domestic PVC market price fell and the range fluctuated, the market volatility was not large, and it did not go out of the obvious trend market
.
East China price for example, East China SG-early May price decline, followed by 9000-9300 yuan / ton shock, PVC price range oscillation, mainly because PVC spot basically weakened, but there is no obvious contradiction
.
Transportation efficiency declined in some parts of East China, terminal downstream products enterprises said that the start declined, PVC terminal demand was relatively weak, cautious just needed to replenish, PVC prices lacked drive, but PVC market expectations are good, the downward space is also limited, so PVC short-term trend volatility
.
The short-term PVC market maintains a pattern of weak reality and strong expectations, the price fluctuation is not large, and whether the strong expectations can be fulfilled in the later period is an important reason
for affecting the market trend.
The factors affecting market expectations in the later period are mainly PVC spot fundamentals, macro policies and market mentality
.
Although the support of PVC cost side is insufficient, but with the gradual concentration of PVC maintenance, the supply side is expected to tighten, and the later demand may gradually recover, and the short-term support of exports still exists, so the supply and demand fundamentals of PVC in the later period are expected to gradually improve, and the macro surface is supported, so the later PVC expectation is relatively optimistic, but it is still necessary to pay attention to the specific recovery of the demand side
.
If demand recovery is acceptable, PVC may fluctuate strongly, but if demand recovery is less than expected, PVC may face the risk
of pullback.
