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Recently, the PVC market has been calm, futures have fluctuated violently, spot trading is general, seasonal off-season impact, fundamental expectations are not good, and the market price center of gravity continues to shift
.
The cost of calcium carbide and calcium carbide PVC is still relatively high, the price of liquid alkali continues to weaken, the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali enterprises is narrow, the overall inventory of downstream enterprises is low, some large downstream enterprises have the intention of replenishing stocks, and the overall demand is still based on just need procurement
.
At present, the domestic PVC production cost is relatively stable, but with the continuous decline of PVC spot prices, the production and operation conditions of PVC manufacturers continue to deteriorate
.
As of December 9, the domestic calcium carbide method and ethylene PVC production costs were 8800 yuan / ton and 9500 yuan / ton
respectively.
Domestic calcium carbide PVC production enterprises lost 106 yuan per ton; Ethylene PVC (externally mined VCM) production enterprises lost 100 yuan
per ton.
At present, although PVC production enterprises are in a state of loss, but the losses are within an acceptable range, so the operating load of PVC production enterprises has not decreased
significantly.
At present, PVC is in the destocking cycle, but the supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly, and the destocking process is relatively slow
.
The supply pressure of domestic PVC has not weakened due to the deterioration of the operating conditions of production enterprises, the market supply is abundant, and the inventory is significantly higher than the same period
last year.
In winter, PVC downstream profiles and pipes enter the seasonal consumption off-season
.
At present, domestic PVC downstream products enterprises are in a state of small profits, but due to limited orders, the overall operating load shows a downward trend
.
From the perspective of the future market, the demand for PVC is difficult to improve
.
On the one hand, as the weather turns cold, the demand in the northern region continues to decline, and most profile companies maintain established inventory, adopt a procurement strategy that just needs to replenish inventory, and new orders are limited
.
On the other hand, the current market is more pessimistic about the future market, driven by the sentiment of buying up and not buying down, the downstream replenishment is not active
.
Overall, the supply and demand pattern of PVC is weak
.
The operating load of enterprises is maintained at a relatively high level, social inventory is high, and the market supply is sufficient
.
However, downstream enterprises are affected by seasonality and procurement is not active, so the PVC destocking process is difficult to accelerate, which has a relatively strong suppression of PVC prices and is also the current leading logic
.
However, from the cost side, the policy and winter transportation problems add more uncertainty to the later supply of calcium carbide, and the price of calcium carbide should not be overly pessimistic, and the drag on PVC on the cost side is not only gradually lifted, but even does not rule out the occurrence of supporting PVC in the later stage
.
Based on the above factors, PVC futures prices take a cautious bearish view
.
