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Recently, the PVC market has been consolidated, futures have moved positions for months, spot fundamentals have not changed much, the price range has fluctuated slightly, and the downstream is replenished with an appropriate amount of bargains, and trading is still deadlocked
.
With upstream maintenance, the supply area is stable, and the social inventory change trend
is required.
Upstream: This week's new maintenance enterprise Shaanxi Beiyuan, and Guangdong Dongcao unplanned shutdown maintenance, so this week's maintenance losses increased, but some early load reduction enterprises started to improve this week, so the PVC industry as a whole fell slightly; Calcium carbide prices continue to rise, PVC production companies this week shipments are not good, the actual order is loose, let the profit order, PVC production enterprises profit space narrowed, but the overall profit remains relatively considerable, if the price of calcium carbide continues to rise in the later period, cost support or will gradually become prominent
.
Most companies maintained a balance of production and sales this week and still maintained some pre-sales
.
Intermediate link: Social inventories accumulated slightly last week, on the one hand, because of the increase in market arrivals, on the other hand, downstream cautious demand, traders responded poorly
to shipments.
However, this week's PVC futures high pullback shock, market point price supply increased, downstream bargaining just need to replenish a batch of goods, traders staged shipments improved, so whether inventory can continue to accumulate still needs to be observed
.
In the later stage, there are only sporadic maintenance in the upstream, the market supply remains high, and the demand side and social inventory change trend are required, if the social inventory continues to accumulate, the market will be under pressure, but the short-term supply and demand contradiction is not obvious
.
Downstream: The start of downstream product enterprises has not changed much, although the rainy weather in the south has ended, but the high temperature weather still has certain restrictions on the start of terminal construction sites and downstream industries, so the overall downstream start improvement in early August is not obvious, and the rigid demand is still stable
.
The price of early products has not risen synchronously with the rise of raw materials, so some downstream raw material costs have certain pressure, and there is resistance to the high price of PVC, and the short-term downstream may continue the bargain replenishment model, and speculative demand is difficult to release
.
Through the above, the short-term PVC market lacks new drivers, there is not much market stimulus news, PVC supply and demand still maintain a weak balance, spot fundamentals support neutral is slightly weak, but the fundamentals are not obvious contradictions for the time being, it is expected that the short-term PVC market will continue to fluctuate in range, and continue to close demand and inventory changes
in the later period.