PVC main shock lower trend center of gravity shifted

News: PVC social inventory last week decreased by 16% month-on-month and 10% year-on-year, in terms of East China, it decreased by 16.
54% month-on-month and increased by 7.
77% year-on-year, and South China decreased by 11.
76% month-on-month and decreased by 59.
46%
year-on-year.
East China stocks are 111,000 tons, South China 15,000 tons
.

The operating rate of PVC production enterprises in this cycle was 79.
45%, an increase of 3.
18% from last week and 1.
39% lower than last year; Among them, the operating rate of calcium carbide method was 80.
7%, an increase of 2.
98% month-on-month and 2.
19% higher than the same period last year; The ethylene process operating rate was 79.
92%, an increase of 4.
42% month-on-month and 11.
52%
lower than the same period last year.

Spot market: the market price of Qilu Chemical City remains stable, the supply of calcium carbide is tight, the calcium carbide method 5 type quotation is 6820 yuan / ton, the ethylene Qilu price S700 quotation includes tax 7060 yuan / ton, S1000 quotation 6900 yuan / ton
.
The supply of Type 5 in the PVC market in Guangzhou is tight, and the focus of Type 5 spot prices has moved up to 6980-7080 yuan / ton, and Tianye Type 5 is 7080 yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Exchange warehouse receipts reported 3 lots, intraday -0 lots, in the historical low area
.

Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 130533 lots, -1005 lots, short positions are 119720 lots, +1101 lots, and the net position is 10813 lots, net long decrease
.

Summary: China and the United States are expected to cancel tariffs in stages, and PVC equipment maintenance unexpectedly increased in November, 5% higher than the same period last year, PVC social inventory last week fell 16% month-on-month, down 10% year-on-year, the speed of destocking has accelerated to boost market confidence, in addition to PVC downstream products imports decreased, exports increased also supported prices
。 However, the Asian PVC market is sluggish, Taiwan lowered the December shipping quotation, PVC production enterprises operating rate reported 79.
45%, an increase of 3.
18% from last week, and this year China canceled the long-term implementation of the anti-dumping policy against the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, these factors are negative PVC
.
It is expected that PVC in the future market will still maintain a weak finishing and
downward shift pattern.
Operationally, short orders in the hands of investors can be held
cautiously.