PVC main force narrow finishing to maintain a range-bound pattern

News: Affected by environmental factors, Xinjiang Tianye's 1.
3 million tons of PVC plant has now begun to reduce its load since December 3, with a daily output of 2,500 tons, and it is expected to decline
in the next two days.
The cuts are expected to continue throughout December
.

Formosa Plastics plans to conduct a one-month routine overhaul of its PVC/VCM plant in Poin Comfort, Texas, which includes an annual capacity of 798,000 tons of PVC and 753,000 tons of vinyl chloride
in February.

According to statistics released by the Japan Caustic Soda Industry Association recently, Japan's caustic soda shipments totaled 331,000 tons in September, an increase of 4% over the same period last year; Domestic demand in the market was 261,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1%.

Domestic demand remained below the year-on-year level, but increased by 30%
year-on-year as exports reached 70,000 tons.

Spot market: PVC in Linyi market is narrowly reduced, and the market atmosphere is general
.
Type 5 material including tax reported 7100-7150 yuan / ton delivered, the price of the whole vehicle is slightly lower
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts report 0 lots, intraday -0 lots
.
Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 100807 lots, -4088 lots, short positions are 105581 lots, -4590 lots, net positions are -4774 lots, and the net margin is reduced
.

On the supply side: the autumn centralized maintenance of upstream production enterprises has basically ended, but due to environmental protection factors, some Xinjiang enterprises have reduced production, and the market supply is basically balanced; On the demand side: real estate data
surprises.
Total investment in real estate development and sales figures for new housing starts increased
significantly from the previous year.
Although the sales area is still lower than the same period last year, it also has a more significant increase
from the previous quarter.
Raw materials: the domestic calcium carbide market price has been adjusted down regionally
.
In addition, Taiwan's downward revision of December sailing schedule quotations has put some pressure
on market psychology.
However, China and the United States are expected to cancel tariffs in phases, and the operating rate of PVC production equipment continues to rise this week, but the social inventory of PVC has decreased significantly month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating that downstream demand has recovered and the speed of destocking has accelerated
.
The decrease in imports of PVC downstream products and the increase in exports also supported prices
.
It is expected that PVC in the future market is likely to maintain a range-bound pattern
.
Operationally, it is recommended that investors wait and see for the time being
.