PVC main force fell slightly and the upper pressure remained

News: The output of domestic PVC manufacturers in February was 1.
4889 million tons, down 4.
69% from 1.
7902 million tons in January; Compared with 1.
5621 million tons in February last year, it was a sharp decrease of 16.
83%.

From January to February 2020, domestic PVC production totaled 3.
2791 million tons, a slight increase of 0.
23%
compared with 3.
2716 million tons in the same period from January to February last year.

As of last week, the operating rate of PVC production enterprises was 71.
65%, an increase of 3.
36 percentage points from the previous week, and a decrease of 11.
17% compared with the same period last year
.
At present, the inventory of production enterprises exceeds 790,000 tons, and still shows a slow growth trend, compared with the output in February, the cumulative inventory of production enterprises has exceeded half a month's production volume
.

Last week, affected by the epidemic in China, the weak domestic PVC demand led to a decline of $10/ton in Asian PVC spot prices, CFR India at $890/ton, CFR China at $850/ton
.
China has weak demand and is also actively seeking exports
.

Most PVC companies have resumed work
last week.
However, the overall downstream operating load is still on the low side
.
At present, the operating load of some large downstream enterprises in East China is maintained at about 40%, and most enterprises are maintained at 2-3%.

Some traders said that the orders sold are still in the warehouse, and the overall warehouse outbound volume is also at a low level
.
The main problems restricting the start of downstream product enterprises are mainly the following three points: First, the final downstream resumption of work is relatively slow
.
Second, there are insufficient
workers in downstream resumption of work.
The return rate of employees is still low, and a large downstream enterprise in East China reported that the current on-the-job employees are only 4-5% of the previous ones, and some enterprises have a lower
arrival rate.
Third, the auxiliary materials of the products are insufficient
.
East China Downstream said that logistics and transportation are still restricted, and some raw material procurement areas are in Jiangxi and Hunan auxiliary materials, and procurement and transportation are still relatively restricted
.

Spot market: Linyi PVC market is running weakly, the market offer is lowered by 50 yuan / ton, the delivery price is about 6150-6220 yuan / ton, and the transaction is less
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts reported 4680 lots, intraday -0 lots
.

Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 148424 lots, -10037 lots, short positions are 132273 lots, -5902 lots, and the net position is 16151 lots, net long decrease
.

Summary: Although the introduction of domestic stimulus policies has weakened market panic, the initial control of the epidemic has also eased market worries
.
However, the operating rate of PVC manufacturers has rebounded, and the market supply is still increasing, although PVC downstream product enterprises have begun to resume work
one after another.
However, local government approval is still strict, the resumption of work in many places is slow, and PVC social inventory remains high
.
Sluggish downstream demand is expected to dampen the rebound height
of PVC.
The future market focuses on the pressure of the 6150 line, and operationally, it is recommended that investors hold short orders with caution
.
Operationally, it is recommended that investors hold short orders with caution
.