PVC main contracts increased their positions to the upside, and the short-term increase was large

News: Affected by equipment maintenance and other policies, the operating rate of PVC production enterprises has changed greatly, according to Longzhong data statistics, as of January to October, domestic PVC production was 16.
4644 million tons
.
In October 2019, the apparent consumption of domestic PVC was 1.
6169 million tons, an increase of 0.
15%
from September.

Spot market: the price of PVC market in Hangzhou is raised, and the calcium carbide method 5 type 7050-7100 yuan / ton is self-picked
.
Sanlian / Yihua 7050 yuan / ton, Jintai 7050 yuan / ton, Zhongtai 7100 yuan / ton, Beiyuan 7100 yuan / ton, Beiyuan 8 7200 yuan / ton, Tianye 7100 yuan / ton, Tianye type 8 7240 yuan / ton, Tianhu 3 7060 yuan / ton, real negotiation
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Exchange warehouse receipts reported 0 lots, intraday -3 lots, in the historical low area
.

Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 149418 lots, +10736 lots, short positions are 143211 lots, +4313 lots, and the net position is 6207 lots, net short to net long
.

Summary: On the supply side: the autumn centralized maintenance of upstream production enterprises has basically ended, and the supply will show a gradual increase pattern in the later period; On the demand side: real estate data
surprises.
Total investment in real estate development and sales figures for new housing starts increased
significantly from the previous year.
Although the sales area is still lower than the same period last year, it also has a more significant increase
from the previous quarter.
Raw materials: the domestic calcium carbide market price has been adjusted down regionally
.
Taiwan's downward revision of December sailing schedule quotations has also put some pressure
on market psychology.
However, China and the United States are expected to cancel tariffs in stages, and the unexpected increase in PVC equipment maintenance in mid-November led to a slight tightness in market supply, in addition, PVC social inventory has decreased significantly month-on-month and year-on-year, and the speed of destocking has accelerated to boost market confidence, while PVC downstream products imports have decreased, and exports have also supported prices
.
Considering the large increase in PVC in the short term, there may be a need
for technical adjustments in the future market.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that investors can reduce their holdings when they rush high, and drop their pockets for safety
.