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On Tuesday, February 4, the PVC main V2005 contract rebounded slightly, closing at 6180 yuan / ton, +35 yuan from the previous trading day; Volume 136942 lots, -35560 lots; Position 147948 lots, -1846 lots, basis 570 yuan, -35 yuan; 5-9 spreads -60 yuan, -10 yuan
.
News: Affected by transportation difficulties and lack of raw materials, the operating rate of PVC production enterprises decreased
significantly after the holiday.
As of February 3, the operating rate of PVC manufacturers reported 70.
66%, 6.
84% lower than before the Spring Festival and 14.
08%
lower than the same period after the Spring Festival last year.
Among them, calcium carbide production enterprises were 7.
29% lower than before the holiday and 16.
26%
lower than the same period last year.
Spot market: The PVC market in Qilu Chemical City remained calm, affected by the extension of the holiday, there is currently no quotation, and the market is still closed
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts reported 4755 lots, intraday -0 lots
.
Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 103370 lots, -6733 lots, short positions are 108905 lots, +1672 lots, and net positions are -5535 lots, net shorting increases
.
Summary: During the long holiday, PVC production enterprises basically maintained normal production, of which several sets of equipment reduced production but also several new devices put into operation, the operating rate of production enterprises fell slightly, after the holiday, affected by transportation difficulties and lack of raw materials, the operating rate of PVC production enterprises after the holiday decreased significantly, reporting 70.
66%.
It shows that the production enterprises after the holiday have significantly reduced their burden
.
PVC industry inventories were 475,600 tons, an increase of 51.
03% over the pre-holiday period and a slight increase of 1.
11%
over the same period last year.
On the demand side, downstream factories mostly stopped in mid-January, and the current start has fallen to a low point, and many areas have issued notices, all new and under construction sites start and resume work need to be delayed
.
Therefore, most downstream enterprises have not yet set the start time, and the willingness to stock is weak
.
In general, the supply of PVC after the holiday continues to remain sufficient, and it is still in the off-season of PVC demand, downstream demand is insufficient, coupled with the need to delay the start of downstream construction, it is expected that the social inventory of PVC will rise significantly, which will suppress prices
.
Investors are advised not to chase long
for the time being.