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On Thursday, February 13, PVC main V2005 contract was sorted out in a narrow range, closing at 6285 yuan / ton, -0 yuan from the previous trading day; Volume 65576 lots, -20430 lots; Position 184643 lots, +2724 lots, basis 115 yuan, -50 yuan; 5-9 spreads - 75 yuan, +5 yuan
.
News: In 2019, the apparent consumption of PVC reached 19.
996 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.
32%, and the downstream consumption of PVC was 20.
0509 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.
73%.
Spot market: Qilu Chemical City PVC market weak operation, the current quotation is less, calcium carbide 5 type price is 6580 yuan / ton, ethylene Qilu S1000 price is 6680 yuan / ton, S700 price is 6780 yuan / ton, inquiries are rare, the market is relatively light
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts reported 4755 lots, intraday -0 lots
.
Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 137300 lots, +2196 lots, short positions are 132352 lots, +3303 lots, and the net position is 4948 lots, net long decrease
.
Summary: After the holiday, the operating rate of PVC manufacturers fell back to 66.
93%, down 3.
77% from the previous week, down 10.
57% from the start before the Spring Festival, and 17.
81%
lower than the same period last year.
It shows that the production enterprises have reduced their negative production significantly
.
However, due to the impact of transportation restrictions and sluggish downstream demand, PVC social inventory increased by 68.
42%
month-on-month.
In terms of demand, after the Lantern Festival, the resumption rate of downstream enterprises is still not high, and most real estate enterprises are concentrated on February 17; Some real estate enterprises will not be able to resume work until February 20 due to local government policy restrictions; The resumption time of individual real estate enterprises has not yet been determined, and the resumption time is arranged
according to the changes of the epidemic.
Therefore, the willingness of downstream enterprises to stock goods is weak
.
At present, it is in the off-season of PVC demand, downstream demand is insufficient, coupled with the need to delay the start of downstream construction, it is expected that the sluggish downstream demand will inhibit the price of
PVC.
Investors are advised not to chase long
for the time being.
