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Recently, the main PVC contract continued to reach a new low
.
The inventory cycle of manufacturers announced upstream continues to increase, which is manifested as poor demand, poor PVC supply and demand situation continues to decline, market sentiment is more pessimistic, it is recommended to be treated weakly, and the future market pays attention to the supply side shutdown maintenance situation may bring about the improvement of supply and demand sentiment
.
As the temperature continues to rise, the production and operation of domestic chlor-alkali plants are not good, and enterprises have carried out routine maintenance
.
Since July, the equipment that was routinely overhauled in the early stage has resumed production
centrally.
According to statistics from relevant institutions, in early July, a total of 7 sets of plants with a total capacity of 2.
22 million tons per year resumed production
in China.
In mid-to-late July, there are still many sets of PVC production equipment overhauled in China, but the announced maintenance period is generally not long, and the domestic PVC supply will gradually return to normal
in the later period.
Export demand in the third quarter turned seasonally weaker, but considering India's cancellation of anti-dumping duties and the reduction of PVC import duties, exports are expected to continue to increase in
the fourth quarter.
At present, the load reduction phenomenon of PVC production equipment has increased, and unplanned maintenance enterprises exist, but at the same time, the early shutdown device has been restarted, and the overall start of PVC industry has increased slightly, recovering to 77.
13%.
On the whole, the main contradiction of the current industrial chain lies in the oversupply caused by high starts, high inventory and weak demand
.
If prices need to stabilize, the industry as a whole needs to reduce the burden and alleviate the oversupply
.
However, although the current plate has fallen below the cost line of some foreign calcium carbide enterprises, and some foreign calcium carbide enterprises have begun to reduce their burden, considering the profit situation of caustic soda and the cost benchmark of some captive calcium carbide enterprises, before the start of the whole industry has dropped significantly, there is still the possibility that the plate will continue to rush down to the cost line of captive calcium carbide and chlor-alkali integrated enterprises until the spot price falls below the profit and loss line, so it is still necessary to pay attention to the operation of
each device in the short term.
When the industry has a real decline, PVC prices may have a tendency to stop
falling.
