PVC is slowly rising, and the supply and demand side is relatively stable

The plastic futures 1809 contract stopped falling and rebounded after reaching the 8900 yuan / ton integer mark to get support, ushering in a wave of oscillating upward market, steadily recovering from 8900 yuan / ton to around
9450 yuan / ton.
At present, there is still some distance
from the previous high (9635 yuan / ton on May 9).

From the perspective of the moving average system, the 5-day, 10-day and 20-day moving averages maintain a good bullish arrangement posture, as the short-term price detached from the 5-day moving average, yesterday's adjustment pressure above the 9450 yuan / ton line appeared
.
In terms of MACD indicators, the red bar body continues to appear, and the DIFF and DEA indicators maintain the bullish uptrend and rise back above zero, indicating that the bulls are growing and dominant
.
It is expected that there is still further room for growth in the plastic 1809 contract in the future
.

Since late June, the PVC futures 1809 contract has bid farewell to the sharp decline mode, the futures price has turned into a slow oscillating upward rhythm, and the center of gravity of the futures price has steadily moved
upward.
Recently, when the 1809 contract price climbed to near the 7000 yuan / ton line, it was pulled back by the pressure of the upper band, but the retracement space is relatively limited, and the following moving averages maintain a bullish arrangement trend and form a good support for the futures price
.
At present, the 5-day and 10-day moving averages have moved to around 6900 yuan / ton, while the 20-day and 40-day moving averages have moved up to the 6880 yuan / ton line, and the 60-day moving average is also located at about 6860 yuan / ton, forming a strong support
for the futures price.

Production: Affected by weak demand and environmental protection policies continue, the operating rate of PVC manufacturers fell
slightly this week.
On July 9, the 500,000 tons/year PVC plant of Inner Mongolia Yili was shut down for maintenance
as scheduled.
Some enterprises PVC installations unplanned maintenance or load reduction, Shandong Dongyue 120,000 tons/year PVC plant temporarily stopped on July 18, Yibin Tianyuan 380,000 tons/year PVC plant temporarily stopped
on July 13.
PVC overall started 74.
5%, down 3.
59% month-on-month; Among them, the operating rate of calcium carbide PVC was 75.
96%, down 2.
74% from the previous month; The ethylene PVC operating rate was 66.
42%, down 8.
28%
from the previous month.

Industry: The rubber and plastic index was 802 points on July 20, unchanged from yesterday, down 24.
34% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and up 39.
24%
from the lowest point of 576 points on December 21, 2015.
(Note: the cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to the present) The overall market of the rubber and plastic industry is mainly volatile and consolidated
.

This week, the PVC spot market atmosphere is consolidated, the price fluctuation range is 50-100 yuan / ton, supply and demand are relatively stable, the peak of equipment maintenance, the operating rate is at a low level, the overall inventory of the society has decreased, the PVC price is supported, it is expected that in the short term PVC market shock consolidation, PVC 5 mainstream quotation 6600-7050 yuan / ton
.