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PVC has entered the era of 10,000 yuan, and many reasons have led to a surge
On September 8, the main contract of PVC futures exceeded the unprecedented 10,000 yuan/ton
.
There are many reasons for the surge in PVC:
There are many reasons for the surge in PVC:First of all, after Hurricane Ida, many sets of PVC plants in the U.
S.
Gulf region were shut down.
Restricted by the supply of electricity and raw materials, there are still uncertainties about the restart of the market, which will exacerbate the current situation of tight supply and demand in overseas markets.
In addition, since August, Asian market quotations Continue to rise, the PVC export market will usher in a favorable situation
.
Secondly, the continuous disturbance of power curtailment in the northwest region of China restricts the recovery of the operating rate of calcium carbide and downstream chlor-alkali industries, and the cost of PVC and the support of the supply side are strong
.
Finally, with the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" and the expectation that the completion of real estate construction will usher in a peak this year, the resilience of PVC demand is expected to be further enhanced, forming a resonance with the upstream supply and the favorable export market
.
PVC hit a new high, also because of the upstream calcium carbide forced
PVC hit a new high, also because of the upstream calcium carbide forcedAbout 80% of PVC production capacity in China is calcium carbide method
.
On the demand side, the apparent consumption of calcium carbide in China in 2020 is 27.
797 million tons, and the compound growth rate from 2016 to 2020 is 1.
9%
.
BDO increased volume, calcium carbide demand increased by 2.
8 million tons
8 million tons
In the application of BDO, the concept of environmental protection is becoming more and more popular, and the demand for degradable plastic PBAT is expected to increase rapidly; benefiting from the consumption upgrade, the rapid growth of spandex will jointly drive the consumption of BDO to increase
.
In the past two years, only Yantai Wanhua has 100,000 tons of new production capacity in Sichuan, Xinjiang Meike 100,000 tons can be put into production in October next year, and it is doubtful whether Inner Mongolia Dongyuan 100,000 tons can be put into production in October next year
.
High energy consumption, environmental protection tightened, and calcium carbide supply blocked
.
China's calcium carbide production capacity has been basically maintained at around 40 million tons per year in recent years, and the output has remained at around 27 million tons.
In the future, calcium carbide will be subject to more policy restrictions, production capacity expansion will be limited, and the supply pattern will gradually improve
.
1) Calcium carbide is a traditional high-energy-consuming project.
The production of 1 ton of calcium carbide requires 3,200 kWh of electricity, 0.
6 tons of blue carbon and 2 tons of limestone
.
Under the background of "carbon neutrality", the production of calcium carbide is subject to many policy constraints.
The total production capacity of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia, a major production province, has reached 11.
45 million tons per year, accounting for 27.
9% of the country.
Reduced load operation, supply is affected
.
In the future, the new production capacity in the industry will be greatly restricted by policies.
The industrial structure adjustment guidance catalogue lists calcium carbide as a restricted item.
In the future, there will be fewer new projects in the industry, and the industry supply will continue to tighten
.
2) Calcium carbide also belongs to the hazardous chemicals industry.
After the explosion in Tanggu, Tianjin, all localities strengthened the safety and environmental protection supervision of calcium carbide production and transportation.
Some small calcium carbide enterprises are facing elimination, and the start of the industry is subject to greater policy restrictions
.
Optimistic about the long-term prosperity of the calcium carbide industry
.
On the demand side, in the future, benefiting from the consumption growth of terminal spandex and degradable plastics, the direct downstream BDO demand will increase, and the demand for calcium carbide industry is expected to grow rapidly; on the supply side, calcium carbide is a high-energy-consuming and high-polluting industry, and it is a restricted industry, and future expansion will face challenges.
greater constraints
.
The relationship between supply and demand in the industry continues to improve, and it is expected that products are expected to usher in a long-term boom
.
It is recommended to pay attention to the investment opportunities of the corresponding listed companies
.
