PVC futures prices may rise or there may be a seasonal rebound

On the macro front, according to the Bureau of Statistics, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index PMI was 50.
3% in December, +0.
2%
month-on-month.
The index is in the expansion range, indicating that China's economy has maintained recovery and economic recovery
.
At present, in order to stabilize production and operation, the government will ensure reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the market; At the same time, we will increase the investment and implementation
of special debts.
According to the past pattern, the new RMB loans in January this year will explode again
.
In this way, the phased recovery of domestic infrastructure and property market can be expected
.

In terms of costs, the coal market showed a weak and stable state due to loose supply
.
The futures 2205 contract was stable at around 700 yuan / ton
.
Meanwhile, COMEX crude oil performed strongly
driven by winter replenishment.
In the later stage, the rise in crude oil will boost the upward fluctuation
of PVC futures prices due to costs.

From the upstream and downstream point of view, upstream inspection equipment is scarce, the operating rate remains high, and the supply is relatively sufficient
.
In addition, the price of domestic calcium carbide has decreased
steadily.
As of Thursday, the mainstream ex-factory price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 4400 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton
from last Thursday.
On the downstream consumption side, the northern pipeline and profile were stopped for the holiday, and downstream construction and load reduction also occurred in East China and South China
.
However, the current social inventory is at a low level; Pay attention to the stock situation
before the year.