PVC futures fell back from the high, and the directional drive is not obvious for the time being

After the holiday, the price of PVC rose sharply, on the one hand, the crude oil market rose sharply during the Spring Festival holiday, and the energy and chemical products rose after the holiday; Second, under the expectation of stable growth, the market is relatively optimistic about post-holiday infrastructure and other expectations, so PVC futures after the holiday are higher, traders are trading up, but the downstream part of the terminal has not yet started, and the market transaction is not good
.
Therefore, the price rose in the first week after the holiday, mainly because of macro support, but PVC fundamentals were weak, and there was resistance to the price to continue to rise, coupled with the weakening of the macro atmosphere in the market, PVC futures fell back to the high
.

On the supply side, the current PVC industry maintenance season has not yet begun, and the industry profit remains high, so most PVC production enterprises start to maintain full load, only a few enterprises start unstable, and in the later stage, once the start of unstable enterprises gradually stabilizes, PVC industry start has a slight increase possibility, but it is expected that the room for improvement is not large
for the time being.

In terms of demand, the general East China and South China warehouse inventory changes are an important indicator reflecting the supply and demand of the PVC market, because the East China/South China market is the largest PVC consumption area
in China.
At present, the warehouse inventory in East China and South China is higher than the same period of previous years, mainly because it takes time to start and improve the downstream of the terminal after the holiday, so the short-term market arrival is the mainstay, but this week's market transaction volume, on the one hand, there is not much downstream stock before the holiday, and actively replenish after the holiday, on the other hand, it shows that the downstream start is improving and demand is gradually recovering
.
Therefore, it is expected that inventories in East China and South China are still expected to increase, but with the increase in terminal operations, it is expected that the accumulation rate may slow down
.

In the short term, PVC fundamentals still maintain a weak state of class, but through market transactions, the terminal downstream has gradually recovered, and the export side is also supported, so there is no obvious contradiction in the fundamentals, short-term PVC market directional drive is not obvious for the time being, it is expected that the PVC market range sorting, the later need to continue to pay attention to terminal downstream starts and social inventory changes
.