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Last week, PVC futures performed volatilely, the upside may be dragged down by its weak fundamentals, PVC devices were negative, supply elasticity was released, and downstream demand in the traditional off-season weakened
due to the holiday of production enterprises.
There is an expectation of accumulation; The downside is also limited, strong expected support and low valuation of PVC itself, excellent export performance to alleviate the pressure of PVC accumulation to a certain extent, demand is temporarily in the expected good stage
.
On the whole, or the upward and downward drivers are insufficient
.
Be cautious about
its upside.
It is recommended to wait and see
.
Fundamentals: upstream starts continue to rise, downstream holiday starts are downward, winter storage demand has not been seen for the time being, and the inventory pressure of the industrial chain has increased
under the weak pattern of supply and demand.
However, recent exports and expectations have given some support
to the plate.
Macro: neutral domestic: the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that "housing is not speculation", and real estate demand and improved housing may be the main demand in 2023; It is reported that more than half of the annual credit line will be released in Q1; The first peak of the epidemic has passed in some cities and there are signs of
recovery.
Raw material support: 1) Wuhai calcium carbide 3650 yuan / ton, calcium carbide single ton loss of 120; 2) Blue charcoal medium material 1520 yuan / ton stable
.
3) Ethylene reported $871/ton, VCM CFR Far East reported $648/ton, remaining stable
.
Supply side: neutral short start upward
.
The overall operating rate of PVC was 75.
96%, an increase of 2.
64 percentage points from the previous month; of which the operating rate of calcium carbide PVC was 74.
47%, an increase of 1.
70 percentage points from the previous month; the operating rate of ethylene PVC was 81.
25%, an increase of 6.
02 percentage points
from the previous month.
There are no new planned maintenance
.
It is understood that Yunnan Nanphos (330,000 tons) is planned to restart after four years, and it is planned to open 150,000 tons of production capacity
after the Spring Festival.
Demand: 1) Downstream product starts declined: pipe operating rate was 34.
55%, down 5.
90% from last week, and profile operating rate was 31.
25%, down 3.
75%
from last week.
2) Weekly transactions increased
slightly.
The weekly transaction volume was 21,900 tons, an increase of 00,600 tons
over the previous period.
The downstream is gradually on holiday, and there is no demand
for winter storage.
3) Exports: Affected by Indian demand, the export volume to be delivered rose to 240,000 tons
.
In terms of inventory, social inventory goes to storage
.
This week's was 239,600 tons, up 02,600 tons
from last week.
Among them, the sample stock in East China was 200,600 tons, an increase of 03,000 tons from last week, and the sample stock in South China was 39,000 tons, down 00,400 tons
from last week.
Upstream destocking to destocking
.
Warehouse inventory was 465,500 tons, down 14,200 tons
from last week.
Inventory pressure remains
.
Epidemic control has been relaxed, logistics turnover has accelerated, and supply has rebounded, which is expected to accumulate seasonally
.
