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Recently, PVC fundamentals have improved, the inflection point of social inventory has initially appeared, and prices have shown an oscillating upward trend
.
Looking ahead, PVC prices are expected to still have upside, driven by rising costs
, improved demand and declining inventories.
On the supply side, the recent PVC operating rate and output have increased month-on-month, and the overall operating rate has increased from 75% at the beginning of the year to 82%, a large increase month-on-month, but only 3.
75 percentage points year-on-year, and the overall supply pressure is not large
.
On the demand side, domestic demand has improved month-on-month recently, and the downstream operating rate of PVC has gradually rebounded
after the Spring Festival.
As of the week of March 17, the operating rate of profile companies was 50%-70%, a significant increase
from the previous month.
In addition to improved domestic demand, exports have performed better
recently.
On the one hand, affected by India's anti-dumping failure, domestic PVC exports to the Indian market have increased recently; On the other hand, the rise in international energy costs increases the price of PVC in the international market, and the price advantage of domestic PVC has emerged, driving the increase in exports, and it is expected that the domestic PVC export volume in the first quarter will be higher than the same period
last year.
In terms of inventory, the inflection point of PVC social inventory has initially appeared
.
According to statistics, as of March 13, PVC social stocks were 335,500 tons, down 2.
27% month-on-month and 0.
56% year-on-year, and social stocks have fallen for two consecutive weeks and are slightly lower than the same period last year
.
Combined with past experience, PVC inventory will show a gradual downward trend from April to August, and it is expected that the price will oscillate upward
in the process of destocking.
On the whole, the main positive factors of the recent PVC price increase are rising costs, improved demand, and declining inventory, and the main negative factors are the increase in supply month-on-month, and the short-term positive factors have a slightly stronger impact than the bearish factors, and it is expected that the short-term price will be dominated by strong oscillation operation
.
In the later stage, it is necessary to pay close attention to the changes in demand downstream of PVC to prevent the adverse impact
of downstream demand on prices that are not as expected.
