PVC demand is expected to be difficult to support the continued rise in prices

Futures market: as of 12.
28, the main PVC closed at 6306 yuan / ton (-27); Top 20 main long positions: 375113 (+24652) Short positions: 432623 (+24695); Net position: 57510 (+43).

Spot: as of 12.
28 East China (calcium carbide method) quotation: 6200 yuan / ton (0); South China (calcium carbide method) quotation: 6265 yuan / ton (0).

Blue charcoal: as of 12.
28 Shaanxi 1366 yuan / ton (0).

calcium carbide: as of 12.
28 North China 4100 yuan / ton (0).

Due to the recent tight arrival of calcium carbide, calcium carbide prices are relatively firm, and PVC costs are still supported
.
At the same time, the recovery in exports and the expected improvement in domestic demand are the main logical drivers
of the recent price rebound.
From the perspective of domestic demand, due to the close holidays in China, the downstream holidays are successive, and the characteristics of the off-season demand are obvious
.
On the supply side, due to the gradual improvement of upstream production profits, the supply pressure has increased again under the continuous recovery of operating rate, and the risk of short-term accumulation has intensified
.
Therefore, the spot transaction this week is general, and the downstream stocking demand is not obvious
.
It is expected that weak realistic fundamentals will curb the rebound height of futures prices, demand expectations will be difficult to support the continued rise of prices, and it is necessary to see an effective decline
in inventories.
It is recommended to wait and see
for now.