PVC crude oil continued to recover, and short orders were bargain-hunting to reduce holdings

PVC market situation, V1905 opened 6400 yuan / ton, the highest reported 6445 yuan / ton, the lowest reported 6370 yuan / ton, closed 6440 yuan / ton, 0.
47% from the previous trading day; Volume 137400; Position 312214, -3622, basis 60, -40; V5-September spread 55, +15
.

In terms of news, in the first half of 2019, the supply pressure of PVC continued to increase
.
Huarong's maintenance resumed today on January 25, and the new equipment of Beiyuan was postponed to March; Hanwha Chemical Ningbo plans to expand its VCM and PVC plant capacity to 400,000 tons by May 2019.
Dongcao, Philippines, plans to expand production by 100,000 tons/year in April, and the total output is expected to reach 210,000 tons/year
.
From March to April, Shanxi Ruiheng and Jin Yuyuan still have 200,000 tons of production capacity to be released
.

In the spot market, the PVC market in Hebei was stable, futures fell slightly, and the spot market was not trading well
.
Type 5 material without tax quotation is delivered at 5800-5860 yuan / ton, the price including tax is 6300-6370 yuan / ton, and some lower and higher prices have also been heard
.
The PVC market quotation in Changzhou is weak and consolidated, the mainstream price is mainly stable, the individual price is slightly reduced by about 10-20 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of 5 type materials is 6400-6550 yuan / ton self-pickup
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts reported 131 lots, -0; in the historical low area, stable
during the day.
Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 115464,-2881, the short positions are 102675,+399, and the net long positions are 12789, -3280
.

Fundamentally, the recovery of crude oil has produced some support for prices, but during the long holiday, the accumulation of inventory by production enterprises is obvious, and just after the long holiday, the sluggish demand for PVC downstream has produced a certain suppression
on the price.

Technically, PVC1905 is in a narrow range of short-term moving average and medium-term moving average, and the trading volume and position volume have increased
significantly.
The 60-day moving average temporarily provides some support
.
The technical indicator MACD median flattened, the green bar became shorter, and the KD indicator had a low golden cross phenomenon, indicating that the short-term bearish strength has weakened
.
Operationally, it is recommended that investors reduce their holdings
in short positions.