PVC contracts rushed back down, and downstream demand is expected to recover

News: PVC social inventory last week decreased by 4.
72% month-on-month, increased by 22.
54% year-on-year, in East China, it decreased by 1.
75% month-on-month and increased by 8.
95% year-on-year, and South China decreased by 10.
00% month-on-month and increased by 61.
80%
year-on-year.
East China stocks are 280,000 tons, South China 144,000 tons
.

The reduction in maintenance/production in Northeast Asia and Taiwan has made the short-term supply of PVC in Asia slightly tight, and prices have stopped falling and stabilized
.
CFR China prices are quoted at $630-660/mt, and ocean-going cargoes are heard at $590-610/mtCFR China's main port
.

The operating rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 73.
50%, an increase of 3.
60% month-on-month and 5.
01%
lower than last year.
Among them, the calcium carbide method started at 73.
20%, an increase of 3.
85% from the previous month, and 6.
01% lower than the same period last year; The ethylene process started at 74.
91%, an increase of 2.
45% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 0.
33%.

Spot market: Qilu Chemical City PVC market trend up, intraday price increased by 40 yuan / ton, calcium carbide method 5 type material price is about 5740 yuan / ton, ethylene method S1000 price is 5860 yuan / ton, S700 price is 5910 yuan / ton, the transaction situation is general
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts reported 2462 lots, +0 lots
within the day.
Main position: the top 20 long positions in the main contract are 140742 lots, +5802 lots, short positions are 137357 lots, -1221 lots, and the net position is 3385 lots, which is a net increase
.

Summary: There seem to be signs of easing the overseas epidemic, and the expectation of deregulation of traffic restrictions in many countries has revived expectations of demand recovery, while the implementation of production reduction commitments by major oil-producing countries is also conducive to the recovery
of market confidence.
In the industrial chain, the domestic PVC social inventory has decreased, and it is expected that after entering May, PVC downstream demand is expected to recover
.
In terms of raw materials, domestic calcium carbide prices continued to fall, but the decline narrowed from last week, while Asian ethylene and vinyl chloride prices rebounded
.
These factors support prices
.
In terms of operation, investors can reduce their holdings at high prices and drop their pockets for safety
.