PVC contracts fell slightly, it is recommended to pay attention to the 6480 first-line pressure

News: After the holiday, environmental protection restrictions were lifted ahead of schedule, affected PVC manufacturers returned to normal 2 days in advance on the 2nd, the tight supply side was slightly eased, and the supply source was successively put into storage after the holiday, and the inventory of each warehouse increased slightly; The downstream of the demand side is affected by the November holiday, North China is shut down for at least three days, other regions are affected, most of the No.
4 have resumed one after another, due to the early stocking, digestion of internal inventory and product stocking production, new procurement demand after the holiday is weak
.

Spot market: The quotation of the PVC market in Hebei region has not changed much
after the holiday.
There is no news guidance in the market, there are no major fluctuations in enterprises and futures, and there is basically no change in merchant prices
.
The replenishment volume of downstream enterprises is not much, and the market transaction is flat
.
Market reference quotation: 5 types of material excluding tax 6180-6300 yuan / ton delivery, including tax 6620-6730 yuan / ton delivery, slightly higher and slightly lower offer is also available
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: The exchange warehouse receipt reported 6530 lots, -0 lots within the day, which is in the historical high area
.

Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 121785 lots, +1897 lots, short positions are 109823 lots, +844 lots, and the net position is 11962, net long increases
.

Summary: During the long holiday, the international economic situation continued to remain turbulent
.
Chaos in the Middle East continues and shows signs of
contagion.
The international trade disputes between the United States and Europe, the United States and Iran, the United States and Russia, and the United States have continued
.
Saudi crude oil production has fully recovered to pre-attack levels
.
International crude oil prices have shown initial signs of stopping their decline after falling back to the previous low, but whether they can stop falling and rebound still depends on the development of
the situation in the Middle East.
Domestically: Affected by the 70-year long holiday and environmental protection inspection and safety production inspection, the operating rate of the polyolefin industry is generally low, while during the long holiday, the operating rate of manufacturers is stable, and the market inventory may increase
significantly.
These factors will put pressure on PVC, but according to the data released by individual leading real estate developers, the sales of commercial housing in September were better
.
Evergrande's contracted sales in September increased by about 73.
8% month-on-month and 31.
9% year-on-year, refreshing the group's monthly contract sales record
.
Country Garden's contract sales amount attributable to the company's shareholders' equity in September increased by 40.
39% year-on-year; If these data are true, it may drive the downstream demand
for PVC to a certain extent.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that investors pay attention to the pressure of the 6480 line, and hold short orders with caution for the time being
.