PVC continues to have a strong trend, mainly short-term wait-and-see

From the valuation point of view, the crude oil cost driving logic may not be suitable for PVC, China's PVC is mainly made of coal and the profit after the Spring Festival continues to be high, and the valuation is obviously too high
compared with the oil chemical industry.
However, overseas PVC raw material ethylene rose due to the rise of crude oil, overseas PVC units may gradually come under pressure, and the export window is expected to continue to open
.

From a fundamental point of view, the start of PVC equipment is stable, it is expected that the start of the plant will start or gradually increase under better profits, the downstream demand reality is still poor, in the face of high prices downstream more digestion of raw material inventory, but with the consumption of raw materials just need to replenish the demand strengthened
.

In terms of inventory, the accumulation of PVC inventory in the last cycle has slowed down, and according to traders, East China's inventory in the warehouse has recently destocked, which is worth paying attention to the subsequent inventory inflection point
.

At present, the rise in crude oil and the expected benefits brought by frequent real estate infrastructure policies continue to be strong under the PVC trend, but the terminal demand is still in the data vacuum period and the gap between demand and expectations cannot be verified for the time being, it is recommended to focus on short-term wait-and-see, pay attention to the high fluctuation of crude oil, the relevant policies of the two sessions, and the inflection point
of social inventory.