PVC broke to the upside and speculative demand increased

Last week, the main PVC contract closed at 7125 points, up 125 points, or 1.
79%, accompanied by a volume of nearly 200,000 lots
.

From a fundamental point of view, the current spot market trading has improved, the middle and downstream enterprises have concentrated on replenishment, the transaction volume has increased, the shipment of enterprises is smooth, the sales pressure is reduced, the factory price of enterprises has been raised, and Shandong is affected by the SCO meeting, some production is reduced, especially Xinfa production reduction is large
.
The shipments of ethylene PVC enterprises have also improved significantly compared with before, and the ex-factory price has been raised
one after another.
After the centralized replenishment of terminal enterprises, the replenishment demand triggered by rigid demand in the later period may be reduced, but with the breakthrough of the price rises, or triggers the speculative demand under the market buying mentality to increase
.

In terms of construction starts, although Lejin Bohai and Fangda Jinhua resumed construction, production cuts in Shandong, especially Xinfa production, led to a slight decline
in the overall operating rate.
As of June 7, the PVC operating rate was 81.
61%, down 0.
27%
from the previous month.
From the table in the table of maintenance equipment in June, the planned maintenance volume in June is higher than in May, and the maintenance equipment involves a production capacity of 5.
36 million tons, accounting for 22.
4%
of the total production capacity.
In terms of inventory, after the company has released and shipped goods, the inventory pressure has decreased significantly, and the willingness to raise prices has increased
.
East and South China inventories have been in a downward process since they peaked at the end of March, and the destocking process has been smooth
.
As of May 31, East China inventory and South China inventory fell by 22.
8% and 44.
4% respectively from the beginning of the month, a large decline, and the downward trend of inventory will continue
.

From the perspective of raw calcium carbide, the price remained stable, but the second central environmental protection inspection team moved into Inner Mongolia, affected by this, 5-6 small calcium carbide furnaces were blocked, affecting the daily output of 3400 tons, although less than 1% of the total output of the country, but still has a greater impact
on investors' psychological expectations.

The above are some of the recent fundamentals, excluding short-term impact, in recent years, with the optimization and adjustment of PVC supply and demand structure, the contradiction of oversupply has been released, and the current overall supply and demand pattern is in a weak balance, which also forms a fundamental support
for the construction of the price pattern.
Operationally, hold
more.
The price can be increased after the breakthrough validity verification, and the lower break is more flat
.