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Market situation: PVC approached the previous high, PVC main V2001 contract increased its position upward, closing at 6345 yuan / ton, +40 yuan from the previous trading day; Volume 205712 lots, +17258 lots; Position 360828 lots, +14800 lots, basis 100 yuan, -5 yuan; 1-5 spread 255 yuan, +15 yuan
.
News: As of October 2019, the cumulative output of PVC in the country was 15.
89022 million tons, an increase of 1.
07% over last year, far lower than the growth rate
of 3.
7% in 2018 。 In 2019, although the production scale of Beiyuan, Jinyuyuan, Liancheng, Hanwha and other devices expanded, the actual new production was limited; From November to December, Cangzhou Julong, Qilu Petrochemical, Xinjiang Zhongtai successively expanded production capacity, but the final increase was only reflected in December, affected by the stability of traditional new start-up devices, the actual output is still difficult to improve compared with the annual cumulative output, and the slowdown in production growth in 2019 is a foregone
conclusion.
Spot market: Guangzhou PVC market type 5 supply is scarce, calcium carbide price slightly increased by 20 yuan / ton, at 6870-7000 yuan / ton, ethylene Dagu 1000 size 7130 yuan / ton, Shantou area 5 type spot continued to rise 20 yuan / ton, Junzheng old / Yili 6940 yuan / ton, real negotiation
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Exchange warehouse receipts reported 21 lots, -0 lots within the day, in the historical low area
.
Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 127859 lots, +3762 lots, short positions are 116868 lots, +6204 lots, and the net position is 10991 lots, net long decrease
.
Summary: Taiwan lowered its December shipping schedule quotation, on October 30, China canceled anti-dumping to the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, PVC production enterprises operating rate reported 76.
27%, an increase of 1.
94% from last week, these factors are bearish PVC
.
However, China and the United States are expected to phase out tariffs, and PVC plant maintenance unexpectedly increased in November, 5% higher than the same period last year, in addition, the acceleration of PVC destocking last week boosted market confidence, in addition to a decrease in imports of PVC downstream products, increased exports also supported
prices.
Technically, PVC positions are increasing to the upside, but it is now approaching the previous high, and there may be adjustment pressure
in the short term.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that investors can reduce their holdings at high prices and drop their pockets
.
