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Russia has found a new way to
deal with Europe.
Bloomberg oil strategist Julian Lee wrote that Russian President Vladimir Putin has found another weapon that can be used against the European countries that support Ukraine — Kazakhstan's crude oil, and that it will hardly cost
Russia.
Europe will begin sanctions on Russian oil on December 5, the grace period is gradually shortening, while the G7 group is considering setting a price cap on Russian crude exports, and Putin has begun retaliation
in advance.
A court in the city of Novorossiysk has ordered the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) to stop shipping from its Black Sea export terminal for a month as punishment
for its violation of oil spill regulations.
From Russia's point of view, the beauty of the move is that the main export that will be cut is not Russian crude oil, but crude oil from neighboring Kazakhstan
.
An already tight market will once again reduce crude oil supply by nearly 1.
5 million bpd, with little cost to
Russia.
Crude oil produced in Russia accounts for only about 10% of CPC exports, and this Russian crude oil can be transferred to other channels
.
The European market will be even worse as about two-thirds of the CPC crude oil ends up in the European market
.
The unrest in Libya has cut the North African country's exports in half, straining
European markets.
Kazakhstan will take a bigger hit, with nearly 80 percent of the country's hydrocarbon exports relying on pipelines and few other options
that can reduce that dependence.
Julian Lee said that by halting CPC exports, even if only briefly, Russia could punish Western sanctioners by stimulating already high crude oil prices, while potentially boosting state revenues
from its barely damaged exports.