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In the second half of the year, the pressure of China's PX production was gradually fulfilled, but the accumulation rate of the Asian PX balance sheet was still controllable
.
It is expected that the PTA balance sheet will usher in an inventory turning point in July, from de-stocking into a stock-accumulating cycle
More PX new capacity in the second half of the year
Beginning in July, the pressure of PX's new production capacity was gradually fulfilled
.
This year, the global new PX production capacity is about 5.
85 million tons, corresponding to the global PX production capacity growth rate of about 7.
6%, while the Chinese PX production capacity growth rate is 17%
In the case of a mismatch between PX and PTA's new capacity, PX gross profit rebounded rapidly in the first half of the year
.
The new PX production capacity only began to materialize in July, and the increase in supply was realized late; while the new PTA production capacity has been cashed in by Fujian Baihong 2.
5 million tons in January and 2.
Starting from May, the PX processing fee quickly dropped to US$200-230/ton, and the PX production expectation of Zhejiang Petrochemical in July and the subsequent PX accumulation cycle were traded in advance
.
In terms of PX demand in Asia, it is assumed that there will be little subsequent changes in the PTA operating rate in Japan and South Korea.
The main change comes from the forecast of PTA production in China, including the expected production of 2 sets of 3.
3 million tons of PTA from Yisheng New Materials in July and September
PTA's new capacity is gradually realized
The second round of PTA new capacity pressure will begin to materialize in July
.
This year's new production capacity is about 11.
6 million tons, and the 2.
5 million tons of Baihong and the 2.
In the second quarter, the maintenance of PTA devices increased significantly year-on-year.
One was the increase in long-term shutdown devices, and the other was the increase in production by major factories
Terminal demand is constantly repaired
This year's terminal growth rate is acceptable year-on-year
.
The growth rate of polyester production from January to May was 22%, but the terminal growth rate was higher than the growth rate of polyester production.
Therefore, this year's grey fabric inventory was lower than in previous years
The terminal loom began to lower the negative at a high position
.
In the second quarter, the growth rate of looms and texturing remained high, but the new orders for domestic and foreign trade were still average, and there was no obvious growth beyond expectations
In summary, in the context of strong crude oil prices, it is estimated that the naphtha processing fee will be US$100/ton, the PX processing fee will be US$200/ton, and the PTA processing fee will be 400 yuan/ton
.
Assuming that Brent crude oil is 75-90 US dollars/barrel, the absolute price of PTA is 4580-5120 yuan/ton
.
If the demand for clothing in the second half of the year grows faster than expected, or if the PTA device reduces production or fails more than expected, the PTA processing fee will increase by about 150 yuan/ton, and the PTA price will correspond to 4730-5270 yuan/ton
.
(Huatai Futures)
Transfer from: Chemical Network
