PTA loss pressure is expected to ease

Since the beginning of this year, the purified terephthalic acid (PTA) market has maintained an upward trend driven by costs, with an increase of 23.

"In the short term, driven by supply contraction, the PTA market continues to de-stock, and it is expected that the profits of production enterprises will increase

Processing fees hit a new low

"International oil prices will rise sharply in 2022, hitting a record high in the past seven years

According to Qiu Qianqian, at the beginning of the year, the processing fee per ton of enterprises was maintained at the level of 600-700 yuan

According to the comparison data of PTA processing fees in the past five years, the first quarter of this year was at a low level

"The price of raw materials is rising too fast, while the downstream demand is weak, the upstream and downstream are in a serious state of tearing, and the profits of intermediate products are continuously squeezed

Short-term supply and demand drop

Yang Sijia, an analyst at Xinhu Futures, believes that the overall PTA market will maintain a trend of decreasing supply and demand

　　In terms of demand, after entering April, due to repeated outbreaks of the epidemic in some parts of the country, downstream demand fell sharply, and PTA companies had to intensify maintenance efforts.

　　"Polyester factories and related downstream enterprises are mainly concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions

　　The supply side will also show a tightening trend

　　Qiu Qianqian believes that the supply is expected to decrease, and spot circulation may still be tight

　　Profits may drop

　　From the perspective of the industrial chain, based on the consideration of high and wide fluctuations in crude oil, under the expectation of supply contraction, the profit of the PX side may move down to the PTA link

　　In the first quarter, due to the increase in overhaul of PX devices at home and abroad and the reduction of load production, the market price of PX reached a three-year high, and the processing fee for naphtha-PX side reached the highest point of 263.

　　From the perspective of the source of the industrial chain, considering that there is no inflection point in the geopolitical conflict, the crude oil supply side has many variables in the near future, and the overall situation will be low inventory and low supply.

　　In the short term, there will be more maintenance of PTA units, and the demand side of PX is facing a shrinking trend.