Prospect of soybean market in China

Introduction: this year, there will be a new important event in China's Agriculture: it is expected that China will import more US soybeans than domestic production for the first time this year That worries Chinese officials and could trigger a debate over genetically modified food Soybean has been widely planted in China Soybean crops come from China and have been produced for thousands of years Soybean has been repeatedly described as the most important crop in ancient works, which is considered to have great potential for cultivation Every year after the emperor's ceremony, the seeds are sown, and the poet praises the advantages of planting But today China, as a member of the WTO, will be forced to allow flooding of us soybeans Industry pundits say Beijing views the situation as a disgrace and a possible threat to national security The cost of domestic soybeans is almost double that of the United States If the tariff will be reduced by 3% with the accession to the WTO, the flood of imports of American soybeans will inevitably lead to a sharp drop in the market price of soybeans In recent years, China's imports of American soybeans have soared, making China the largest buyer of American soybeans and soybean products According to the data provided by the American Soybean Association, China's purchase of American soybeans last year was US $1.1 billion, which is expected to reach US $1.28 billion this year, three times the amount of imports in 1999 Huang Shouhong, the agricultural research center of the State Council, said the whole soybean industry could collapse without urgent measures Beijing was shocked by the prospect of a significant increase in imports, which reportedly led to the publication of the genetically modified food regulations in June 70% of American soybeans are genetically modified For many years, European countries have used environmental protection standards as weapons to protect the ceramic industry and textile industry from the impact of cheap imports China may now adopt a similar "green trade barrier" strategy The GM rules proposed by China's Ministry of agriculture will bring China into line with European Union countries, but will be strict restrictions for the United States According to the regulation, all genetically modified foods must be labeled, and the safety inspection process can be as long as 270 days, higher than the current 90 days If the regulation is implemented, it will hinder the import of most American soybeans But six months after China announced the rules, it has yet to provide details According to industry insiders, China had planned to publish detailed rules of some implementing regulations before its accession to the WTO to avoid disputes over trade and legislation, but did not "I've only heard that China will postpone the publication of the rules and regulations on genetically modified organisms," a member of Greenpeace said Soybean prices in China have fallen by 30% since 1997 In 1998, soybean production was only 51% higher than that in 1957, which was 34% higher than that in the whole country This is the data released by the agricultural research center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences According to Huang Shouhong, China's soybean production is mainly in the northeast and East, which has reduced the planting area, and will continue to decline with China's accession to the WTO The increase in consumption of soybean products in the United States will hinder China's efforts to update agricultural technology and will affect the increase of soybean yield per unit area Large scale import of genetically modified soybeans will also pollute domestic soybean varieties and wild soybeans, which will be the most valuable varieties in the future soybean industry According to Greenpeace members, "China should stop importing US soybeans because there has been a pollution incident and Mexico's corn has been contaminated by imported US corn." According to industry insiders, the main reason for the surge in US soybean imports is the rapid increase in demand for soybean oil Soybean oil imports increased from 1 million tons in the early 1990s to 4 million tons this year Most of the domestic oilseed crushing plants are small-scale, unable to meet the growth of demand With the rapid growth of China's economy, the demand has been growing A soybean trader claimed that the shortage of oilseeds may be the reason why Beijing did not enforce a ban on importing foreign soybeans The increase of domestic production cost and the high price of domestic soybean drive the demand for foreign products Due to China's household contract responsibility system, which divides the land into small plots, large-scale production is not possible According to Mr Huang, half of the production cost is labor cost Although the cost of machinery in the United States is 2-3 times that in China, the total cost of soybean production in mainland China is 43% higher than that in the United States China's soybean yield is only 64% of that of the United States In fact, the problem is not that Chinese soybean protein content and oil production rate need to be higher than foreign soybean, and even the price should have an advantage Another main reason is the increase of transportation cost due to China's transportation mechanism A trader based in Shanghai said it would take three months for soybeans purchased in the domestic market to be delivered On the contrary, the purchase time from abroad is 18-35 days What's more important is that there is no need to worry about quality The trader imports 45000 tons of soybeans from abroad every year, mainly from South America He claims it's very troublesome to buy domestic soybeans He was born in the northeast of China and is the main soybean producing area in China He claims that the buyer must choose the source and mode of transportation, crushing, storage, packaging and shipping Failure to seriously consider these links will result in eventual damage The imperfection of China's legal system, farmers' failure to sign contracts, and local government protectionism mean that many laws or efforts to reduce losses may not help As a result, many in the industry claim that even after the long-awaited details of the genetically modified regulations have been released, customs cannot prevent the flood of us soybeans This month the office of the U.S business representative said it had resolved the soybean dispute China will set a grace period for us soybean imports and repeal the genetically modified regulations to accept US standards The long-term delay in implementing the new regulations makes China face a dilemma in regulating the genetically modified food industry On the one hand, China needs to protect the soybean industry and poor farmers who have suffered losses There are also concerns about the long-term threat to the environment posed by transgenic experiments On the other hand, China is worried that such regulations will not hinder the development of the domestic biotechnology industry, which is the most important way to improve the competitiveness of China's agriculture Many optimists claim that China's soybean industry can survive, mainly because China's soybeans are not genetically modified products, so they can meet the export standards of EU countries "China should take advantage of opportunities to produce non GM soybeans and increase exports to Japan and South Korea, where GM soybeans are rejected by the public," Greenpeace said According to official data, China's soybean exports in the third quarter increased by 1.1% over the same period last year In the same period, farmers' income increased by 14.2%, mainly due to the increase of soybean price in the mainland (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: