Review and Prospect of soybean market in China

Introduction: the author: quxiaofeng, Jilin grain center wholesale market, in recent years, although China's soybean demand is increasing year by year, the soybean production has been stagnant The import of soybeans has a significant impact on the price trend of soybeans in China, but also seriously affects the income of farmers in the main soybean producing areas and the enthusiasm of planting soybeans This year is the first year of China's accession to the WTO With the continuous growth of China's soybean consumption and the continuous change of the international market, the basic contradiction between China's soybean production and demand needs to be solved urgently I Analysis on the basic situation of soybean production and demand in China from 1996 to 2001: China has a long history of soybean planting, Heilongjiang, Jilin and other provinces have suitable climate, and the foundation of soybean production is good According to the relevant data, from 1996 / 1997 to 2000 / 2001, China's soybean production was 13.23 million tons, 14.74 million tons, 15.15 million tons, 15.45 million tons and 15.45 million tons respectively (2000 / 2001 was estimated in May 2002) From the above data, we can see that in the past three years, the total output of soybean has been around 15 million tons Import: due to two consecutive years of soybean production reduction in 1995 and 1996, enterprises competed to buy soybeans, and the price of soybeans kept rising In this case, the state adjusted the import and export policy of soybeans, increased imports and reduced exports By 1995, China became a net soybean importer for the first time From 1996 to 2001, the import of soybeans was 1.11 million tons, 1.96 million tons, 3.21 million tons, 4.32 million tons, 10.42 million tons and 13.94 million tons respectively With the increase of the import quantity year by year, China has become the largest soybean import country in the world Among them, China's soybean import increased significantly in 2000, and the import volume was 2.41 times of that in 1999 In 2001, it was 33.78% higher than that in 2000 Supply: supply is the sum of opening inventory, production and import In 1997 / 1998-2000 / 2001, China's total soybean supply was 17.67 million tons, 22.02 million tons, 24.48 million tons and 31.81 million tons respectively From the production and import volume, we can see that the reason for the increasing supply in recent two years is not the result of the increase of production, but the result of the rapid increase of import The soybean supply in 2001 / 2002 is expected to be around 34 million tons Export: before 1995, China was a net soybean exporter After 1995, with the increase of soybean demand in China, the import and export pattern of soybean changed, but the export has been maintained at about 200000 tons According to the statistics of customs, China's soybean exports in 1999 / 2000-2001 / 2002 were 230000 tons, 210000 tons and 150000 tons respectively (2001 / 2002 was estimated in May 2002) 2 The main problems in China's soybean market 1 The gap between domestic soybean production and demand is increasing, which cannot meet the processing needs In recent years, the production of oil and fat is developing rapidly in China, and the demand for soybean is increasing It can be seen from the comparison between the supply and demand of soybean production in China that the domestic soybean production has been unable to meet the production needs From the data of China's soybean import from 1996 to 2001, we can see that China's soybean demand is increasing rapidly, but the soybean output is not growing at the same time, and the gap between domestic supply and market demand is growing For example, at present, China's annual demand for soybeans is about 25 million tons, and domestic production is about 15 million tons, so the gap is about 10 million tons If China's soybean import is calculated as 14 million tons / year, it will exceed the market demand by 4 million tons If imports are too much, it will impact the soybean production and sales in China Take Jilin Province as an example: at present, the annual soybean processing capacity of the province has reached 2.5 million tons, and the soybean output is only 1.5 million tons, with a gap of 1 million tons It is estimated that by 2005, the soybean processing capacity of Jilin will reach 3 million tons If the output still fails to keep up, the gap between production and demand will increase in the production area 2 China's soybean oil production rate is low and the production cost is high, which can not compete with foreign soybean Most of the farmers in our country plant soybeans on a household basis The mechanization level is low, and there is no industrial scale; the input of farmers is large, and the production cost is high However, the mechanization level of soybean production in the United States, Argentina, Brazil and other countries is high, which drives the decline of soybean price in the world market Take the United States as an example From 1990 to 2000, the planting area of soybeans in the United States increased from 22.86 million hectares to 30.17 million hectares, an increase of 32%; the output increased from 52.42 million tons to 75.38 million tons, an increase of 44%, accounting for more than half of the total output of soybeans in the world In China, the cost of soybean per mu in Heilongjiang Province is lower than that in the United States and Brazil The cost per mu of Heilongjiang, the United States and Brazil is 134.75 yuan, 183.29 yuan and 180.57 yuan respectively However, the cost per jin of Heilongjiang Province is 0.07 yuan more than that of the United States and 0.08 yuan more than that of Brazil The main reason is that the yield per mu of soybean in China is far lower than that of the United States and Brazil In addition, the oil yield of international transgenic soybean is high, which is 2% higher than that of China 3 The development of China's oil and grease processing industry is more important in the South than in the north, and the development is not balanced In recent years, some large soybean processing enterprises in South China have developed rapidly, with an average processing capacity of 50000-60000 tons / month Then, the annual demand for soybean is about 600000 tons Due to the high freight and unstable supply of soybeans from the north to the south Therefore, the imported soybeans with good quality and low price and high oil yield have attracted the oil and oil processing enterprises in South China After five years' development and operation from 1996 to 2002, some soybean processing enterprises in South China have established relatively stable supply relations with importers Therefore, only part of the soybeans in the north can be processed on the spot, part of them can adjust the market when they are out of stock, and part of them are overstocked in the warehouse On the one hand, soybean processing enterprises in the south do not use or use less soybeans in the north On the other hand, the development of soybean processing industry in the north is slow, so the sales price of soybeans in the production area is restrained For example: before March 2002, the inventory of Dunhua District in Jilin Province was overstocked, with an annual output of 59000 tons of soybeans in 1997 and 2000 Due to the low price, it could not be sold at a lower price, so it could only be overstocked in the warehouse In recent years, due to the development of oil and oil processing industry in the northern production area, the overstock of soybean inventory in the North has been relatively eased and the situation that the price of soybean cannot be sold has been relatively eased For example, Yulong oil and grease company and Jilin Deda, etc in Liaoyuan, Jilin Province, have signed purchase and sale contracts with farmers by means of orders, which not only ensures the stability of the enterprise's development of production sources, but also drives the development of the local soybean industry 3 Several entry points to solve the contradiction between soybean production and demand from the current and future development trends, the demand for soybean and its related products in China will maintain a strong growth momentum; from the world perspective, the demand for soybean is growing rapidly, how to solve the contradiction between soybean production and demand is clearly in front of us As an important food crop in China, soybean has a good planting foundation and is also an important economic source for farmers in the main production areas Meanwhile, soybean has a wide range of uses, which can be used as a direct food, as well as a raw material for oil and feed Therefore, the development of soybean production in China has far-reaching economic significance Next, the author analyzes several breakthrough points to solve the contradiction between soybean production and demand in China: 1 Encourage soybean production and improve soybean production According to the market demand, optimize the planting varieties, carry out regional planting, give full play to the scale advantage of soybean production, and encourage soybean production In the past, in all links of soybean production, supply and marketing in China, the phenomenon of mixed planting, mixed collection and mixed storage was very serious, which led to the lack of competitiveness in the domestic market and the lack of competitive advantage in the international market Only by optimizing varieties and forming large-scale planting, can we meet the different needs of oil extraction and food processing and improve market competitiveness China's soybean production and demand gap is large, the market development space is very broad In recent years, farmers' enthusiasm for planting beans is not high because of their small profit Only by increasing the government's support for soybean production and giving corresponding subsidies to the farmers who grow soybeans, can the farmers get benefits in planting soybeans, so as to mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers in planting soybeans 2 Control the quantity of soybean imports and reopen export channels After China's accession to the WTO, soybean has not been included in the list of products under tariff quota management, and the import of soybean cannot be restricted by means of tariff quota access Therefore, the author believes that the methods to control soybean import are: (1) to increase the output, reduce the cost, and improve the market competitiveness of domestic soybean (2) Through the implementation of genetically modified agricultural products management measures and inspection measures in line with international standards, the number of soybean imports will be controlled (3) In order to alleviate the contradiction between the production and import of soybean in China, it is necessary to develop the international market with the advantages of non GMO soybean market, while constantly improving the quality of soybean, to develop the brand of non GMO soybean and to re open up the export market of soybean 3 Promote the experience of "corn soybean" rotation and develop order agriculture Soybean deep processing products have high added value, good profit and strong influence on processing enterprises In order to ensure the normal processing needs of enterprises, the processing enterprises and farmers sign the planting contract, which is conducive to the stable supply of goods for enterprises, but also brings stable economic benefits to farmers In 2000, Jilin Province has taken the lead in implementing the "corn soybean" rotation plan, with a subsidy of 300 yuan per ton of soybean, which has been implemented in Liaoyuan, Gongzhuling and other soybean production areas with remarkable results In 2002, the soybean planting area of the whole province was 9 million mu, of which the soybean corn rotation area was 6 million mu The implementation of "Jilin Province soybean revitalization plan" provides a good experience for China's agricultural adjustment of industrial structure and development of scale economy With the increase of soybean output, not only the corn stock pressure can be relieved, but also the market competitiveness of domestic soybean can be enhanced 4 Reduce the cost of soybean production and sales, and determine a reasonable import and export tax rate Let soybean production and corn production enjoy the same protection support Start from the production link and circulation link, reduce the production cost and sales cost of soybean For example, the State Planning Commission issued an emergency notice on March 26, 2002, and since April 1, the railway construction fund levied by the railway transportation such as paddy, rice, wheat, flour, corn, soybean, etc will be exempted in full This is a substantial good for soybean management enterprises, which can save about 20-40% of transportation costs for soybean management enterprises To some extent, the reduction of transportation cost can encourage enterprises to use domestic soybeans In addition, reasonable determination of import and export tax rate of soybean and control of input tax and output tax of soybean import and export within a reasonable range are also conducive to enhancing the competitiveness of domestic soybean The second half of 2002 is the first year of China's accession to the WTO Soybean, as the first food variety to be impacted by the international market, has attracted much attention this year On March 20, after the implementation of China's genetically modified regulations, the import of genetically modified soybeans once stagnated From January to May this year, China's total soybean imports reached 2.85 million tons, a 37.7% decrease over the same period last year Soybean prices are rising in the domestic market due to increased demand By the middle of June, the soybean stocks of state-owned grain enterprises in Jilin and Heilongjiang were not much At present, affected by the arrival of imported soybeans, the transaction price of soybeans in the production area began to fall and the number of transactions decreased From the development of soybean market in the second half of the year, before the harvest of domestic soybean in autumn, the quantity and price of imported soybean in Hong Kong will affect the soybean price in China (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: