Profits still need to accumulate Shanghai rubber is still difficult to get rid of the weak pattern

High water liter of synthetic glue has become the norm

Since last year, the price difference structure between domestic synthetic rubber and sky rubber has reversed, from the discount mode to the premium state, and since July this year, this premium structure has continued to expand
.
It can be seen that in the past month, the price of styrene-butadiene rubber market has risen by about 500 yuan / ton, an increase of about 4%; The rise of cis-butadiene rubber was even greater, with a cumulative increase of 1,000 yuan / ton, an increase of 8%.

Although the increase rate of the two is slightly different, there are two main reasons for the simultaneous strengthening of the two prices: one is that the rise in the price of international crude oil has led to an increase in the cost of butadiene, which is directly transmitted to the cost of synthetic rubber; Second, the production equipment of many domestic synthetic rubber enterprises has stopped and repaired more, and the overall manufacturer's shipments have decreased
.
The former factor causes the cost side to rise, while the latter factor leads to a tightening
of the supply side.

Substitution effects cannot be concentrated

Although synthetic rubber and sky rubber have a raw material substitution effect in the production formula of downstream tire enterprises, their substitution ratio is relatively limited
.
Taking tire formula as an example, the space for synthetic rubber and sky rubber to replace each other is only 5%.

Even if this 5% is completely changed, if the profit margin has not improved after the company adjusts the formula, it will be difficult to stimulate the enthusiasm
for the procurement of tianjiao.
At present, the tire industry is in the off-season, tire exports are hindered, and tire prices are showing signs
of reduction.
Tire companies still have further bearish sentiment on the current sluggish price of tianjiao, and maintain the rhythm of buying as you go
.
Therefore, the effect of replacing synthetic rubber with tianjiao cannot be reflected in a concentrated manner, and the profit on the price of rubber is not strong
.

Thailand has not cut its area strongly

In order to boost the price of tianjiao, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia jointly introduced export restrictions from January to March
.
Although there was some support for rubber prices during the policy implementation period, after the policy period, Tianjiao returned to weakness
.
From this point of view, restricting exports can only cure the price of rubber, but it is difficult to cure the root cause, only by reducing the planting area from the source can we change the situation
of oversupply in the rubber market.

Recently, the Thai government announced that it plans to reduce rubber planting area by 200,000 rai per year in the next five years to boost rubber prices, and promised to subsidize rubber farmers who respond to the policy, with a subsidy of 16,000 baht per rai and a maximum of 10 rai per household
.
Although Thailand's plan to reduce the rubber planting area is a fundamental measure, the policy is not strong, and the total reduction in 5 years is only 1 million rai, compared with the current total rubber planting area in Thailand of 20 million rai, the reduction is only about
5%.

Even if reducing the rubber planting area can have a beneficial effect, it will take 5 years to have an effect
.
In the short term, in the context of the seasonal rubber production season, the long-term bullish policy cannot resist the negative impact
of short-term supply pressure.
According to the statistics of the Association of Tianjiao Producing Countries, the total output of Tianjiao member countries from January to May reached 4.
6048 million tons, an increase of 6.
6% over the same period last year, of which the output of Thailand and Indonesia increased by 15% year-on-year, Vietnam's output increased by 43%, and China's output increased by 22%.

It is not difficult to see that in the context of the rubber tapping season, rubber producing countries have maintained a substantial increase in production, and it is currently suitable for rubber tapping, if there is no natural disaster such as flooding, the year-on-year growth rate of rubber production will remain at a high level
.

On the whole, although synthetic rubber has the basis for prompting tire companies to change the formula, the terminal demand is not good, and the reduction in tire prices makes enterprises not highly motivated to purchase raw materials of tianjiao, and the substitution effect is difficult to play a role
.
At the same time, Thailand's reduction of rubber planting area, although the success is beneficial in the modern era, but the reduction is not enough, it is difficult to resist the supply pressure
of the current peak season.
Therefore, the quantitative change of profit still needs to be saved, and the qualitative change of rubber prices to get rid of the downturn and usher in take-off has not yet
arrived.