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After electrolytic aluminum was listed as the target of capacity reduction in 2017, the market's speculation about the policy has not stopped, and policy changes and expectations involving environmental protection and backward production capacity withdrawal continue to support aluminum prices
.
As a follow-up to the joint issuance of the "2017 Air Pollution Prevention and Control Work Plan in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas" jointly issued by the four ministries and commissions on February 28, on March 17, Shandong Liaocheng decided at the environmental protection conference that it will implement the winter heating season of industrial enterprises to stagger the peak production, and the production of electrolytic aluminum is limited to more than 30%, Liaocheng is the main production place
of electrolytic aluminum and alumina in Shandong Province.
Although production restriction is a long-term behavior, and the implementation effect is not yet known, the expectation of limiting production under environmental protection pressure has been strengthened, which is beneficial
to aluminum prices, especially long-term prices.
Another possible way to reduce production capacity is to eliminate backward production capacity
through technical process indicators.
The State Council's "Guiding Opinions on Resolving the Contradiction of Serious Overcapacity" requires that pre-baked tanks
below 160 thousand amperes be eliminated by 2015.
It is not ruled out that due to the requirements of environmental protection and energy conservation and emission reduction, the target will be raised to 200 kA
in the later stage.
In March, Asia Metal Network conducted electrolytic cell geometry statistics on a total of 72 electrolytic aluminum plants in operation in 17 provinces in China, of which the capacity of trough types below 200 thousand amperes was 400,000 tons, accounting for 1% of the country's
total production capacity.
If carried out through this route, the affected capacity is expected to be limited
.
The end-consumption sector data has not deteriorated
Real estate, as one of the main sectors of aluminum consumption, has recently released data that performed well
.
Real estate development investment is in the process of inertia recovery, and the cumulative growth rate of real estate development investment from January to February was 8.
9%, an increase of 2 percentage points
over last year.
The study found that investment and development often lagged home sales by 6-8 months, consumption growth peaked in April 2016 and then declined, and real estate investment growth is expected to usher in pressure
in March 2017.
According to the automobile sector, China's automobile production from January to February 2017 was 4.
59 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11.
10%, maintaining a double-digit growth rate
.
In addition, the national infrastructure construction investment completed 1.
03 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.
27%, and the growth rate was higher
than the same period last year.
Although the market is not optimistic about the long-term growth rate of real estate and automobiles, the data of various sectors of the short-term terminal is ideal, and the demand for small cycles cannot be falsified
.
Environmentally inhibited consumption release
From February 15 to March 15, the environmental protection team conducted environmental inspections in 18 cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding provinces, including Henan
, a major aluminum producing province.
This year's environmental protection inspections are strict, and all enterprises that do not meet emission standards are closed, resulting in a weaker operating rate of aluminum in the lower reaches of Henan Province than in the same period in
2016.
At the same time, environmental protection is also affected by aluminum downstream processing enterprises
in Guangdong Province.
The first round of environmental inspections has ended, coupled with the increase of environmental protection investment by enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises have gradually returned, and the survey results show that orders are in good condition
.
From the perspective of spot trading, the atmosphere of the spot market this week has improved compared with the previous period, the downstream began to buy on the dip, the volume of warehouses has also increased, and the discount for the period is gradually narrowing, of which the discount in East China converged to less than 200 yuan / ton, and the South China discount also returned to less than
100 yuan.
The supply-side reform policy is still difficult to affect the short-term supply of aluminum, but the continuous follow-up policy strengthens the market's expectations for the reform, which makes the bears taboo and supports aluminum prices
.
In addition, the end of environmental protection supervision in some cities in the first quarter, the resumption of production of small and medium-sized processing enterprises, and the recovery of downstream procurement quantities have driven the decline in the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, constituting the thrust of short-term supply and demand improvement in the aluminum market
.
However, we must see that the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is still increasing rapidly, the national new electrolytic aluminum production capacity reached 1 million tons in January-February, and the cumulative output of electrolytic aluminum in January and February was 5.
49 million tons, an increase of 15.
6%
year-on-year.
High output growth and unsatisfactory prospects for terminal consumption have caused greater suppression
on aluminum prices.
Therefore, the aluminum market is facing a pattern of long and short intertwined, and the main contract price is treated in the range of 13500-14200 yuan / ton, and it is not suitable to chase up and kill.
