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Before the holiday, the main contract of Tianjiao fell under pressure in the 15,000 area, and the market trend was in line with expectations, mainly near the end of the year, the downstream tire market has completed stocking, and the automotive industry, although the sales volume has risen sharply compared with the same period last year, but there is a pullback in December 2020, superimposed on the global production in 2020 is better than the market expectation, resulting in a price increase to stop at the 15,000 line, there is a short-term pullback, there is a further test of the 60-day moving average support below the daily level
.
Global natural rubber production in 2020 was better than market expectations, and production in January 2021 was sharply higher
than the same period last year.
According to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), global natural rubber (NR) production in 2020 will fall by 7.
7% year-on-year to 12.
782 million tons, better than market expectations
.
Production in Thailand, India and Cambodia was better than expected
during the year.
From the output of ANRPC's main producing countries in January 2021, it was 964,200 tons, although it was down 7.
52 percentage points from 1,042,600 tons in December, but considering that Vietnam and northern Thailand have entered the shutdown period in January, and increased by 13.
97 percentage points over the same period last year, the increase is obvious, so the production in early 2021 is in an upward trend, restricting the short-term price rebound
.
In the domestic market, China's automobile production and sales in January 2021 reached 2.
388 million units and 2.
503 million units, respectively, up 34.
6% y/y and 29.
5% y/y, while down 15.
9% m/m and 11.
6%
m/m.
The significant year-on-year increase in production and sales was mainly due to the current market demand still recovering, followed by the 2020 Spring Festival holiday in January, coupled with the impact of the epidemic at the beginning of last year, so the base level was low, resulting in a sharp year-on-year increase
.
The month-on-month decline reflects that the lack of supply of automotive chips has affected the production rhythm
of enterprises.
At the beginning of the year, Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that the recent shortage of chip supply will also have a certain impact
on global automobile production in the future.
In January, automakers exported 119,000 units, down 17.
6% month-on-month, and the market cooled
slightly.
On the whole, short-term tianjiao production is better than market expectations, and the downstream tire factory full resumption of work is basically after the Lantern Festival, the domestic performance of the automobile is relatively optimistic compared to foreign countries, but the probability of a sharp rise is low, unless crude oil rises sharply, driving the center of gravity of commodities upward, and there are many uncertainties in the external market during the Spring Festival, it is recommended to take a light position over the holiday
.
