Present situation and Prospect of soybean in China

Introduction: 1 Production and Trade: the impact of dry climate on production in summer is lower than originally estimated Therefore, it is estimated that China's soybean production will increase to 15.25 million tons in 2001 / 02 market year The biggest change was in Heilongjiang Province, where domestic agencies estimated soybean production at 5.16 million tons, 654000 tons higher than last year It is also estimated that the soybean crushing volume will increase due to the continued expansion of the soybean industry and strong import for most of the market year Although China's new GM labelling rules have had a serious impact on trade, shipments of soybeans purchased before the rules were announced continue to arrive and are only now over The full impact of the regulation on the market will be fully reflected in 2002 2 Trade prospects: China's genetically modified labeling regulations have added some uncertainties to the already unstable market The regulation was released on June 6, requiring imported GM products to provide a GM safety certificate However, the regulation does not specify the definition of safety certificate or how to obtain the GM certificate As for the details of the GM regulations, they have not yet been published At the same time, Chinese quarantine officials declined to say whether imports would require a GM Certificate in the absence of detailed GM regulations Trade insiders claim that some goods can enter China's ports, but few traders are willing to take risks because lack of safety certificates may lead to rejection U.S Customs data show that U.S soybean exports to China fell from 1.5 million tons in the same period last year to 0 tons from May to September, despite reports that two ships have arrived in China in the past two weeks At present, the detailed rules and regulations of GMOs are still being drafted, and the Chinese government has not provided us with the opportunity to understand or comment on the detailed rules The extent of the impact on trade depends on the content of the rules Even if the rules are published, there is still a problem of grace period, because the GM rules allow the Ministry of agriculture of China to review the application of GM certificate within 270 working days Foreign governments have been putting pressure on China since June In addition to the issue of genetically modified labeling regulations, traders reported significant delays in soybean shipments due to unusually strict quarantine measures by Chinese officials Under these circumstances, the market's annual trade outlook for 2001 is uncertain The economic site expects China's soybean imports to fall to 12 million tons in 2001, based on reduced trade As part of the compensation, and as a reflection of China's WTO accession efforts, soybean oil and meal imports increased It is highly likely that trade will rebound later in the year, with the same or more trade volume as the market in 2000, as importers seek to replenish inventories On the other hand, if the problem is not solved, the loss may increase This seems unlikely, as China's domestic oilseed crushing plants will be the main victims, while Indian and South American soybean oil producers will be the main beneficiaries But China's regulatory authorities have ignored domestic industry demand, so a second possibility cannot be ruled out 3 Supply and demand forecast: it is estimated that China's soybean planting area is 9.2 million hectares, the harvest area is 9.2 million hectares, the beginning inventory is 3.17 million tons, the output is 15.41 million tons, the annual market import is 13.246 million tons, the annual market import from the United States is 6.22 million tons, the total supply is 31.817 million tons, and the annual market export is 2080 10000 tons, the domestic crushing capacity is 19.5 million tons, the domestic consumption of food is 6.268 million tons, the domestic consumption of feed is 1.58 million tons, the total domestic consumption is 27.348 million tons, and the ending inventory is 4.261 million tons It is estimated that in 2001 / 02 market year (October September of the next year), China's soybean planting area is 9 million hectares, harvesting area is 9 million hectares, initial inventory is 4.261 million tons, output is 15.25 million tons, market annual import volume is 12 million tons, market annual import volume from the United States is 4.75 million tons, total supply is 31.511 million tons, market annual export volume is 220000 tons, and domestic crushing volume is 20 million tons The consumption of domestic food is 6.42 million tons, the consumption of domestic feed is 1.55 million tons, the total consumption of domestic food is 27.97 million tons, and the ending inventory is 3.321 million tons It is estimated that in the market year 2000 / 01 (October to September of the next year), China's soybean crushing volume is 19.5 million tons, soybean meal storage at the beginning of the period is 0 tons, soybean meal output is 15.3 million tons, market annual import volume is 96000 tons, market annual import volume from the United States is 0 tons, total supply volume is 15.396 million tons, market annual export volume is 113000 tons, domestic industrial consumption is 1 million tons, domestic feed consumption is 1 million tons The consumption is 14.283 million tons, the total domestic consumption is 15.383 million tons, and the ending inventory is 0 ton It is estimated that in 2001 / 02 market year (October to September of the next year), China's soybean crushing capacity is 20 million tons, soybean meal inventory at the beginning of the period is 0 tons, soybean meal output is 15.7 million tons, market annual import capacity is 600000 tons, market annual import capacity from the United States is 30000 tons, total supply capacity is 16.3 million tons, market annual export capacity is 70000 tons, domestic industrial consumption is 1 million tons, domestic feed consumption is 1523 10000 tons, the total domestic consumption is 16.23 million tons, and the ending inventory is 0 ton It is estimated that in 2000 / 01 market year (October to September of the next year), China's soybean crushing capacity is 19.5 million tons, the initial storage capacity of soybean oil is 280000 tons, the output of soybean oil is 3.35 million tons, the annual import volume of market is 76000 tons, the annual import volume of market from the United States is 13000 tons, the total supply is 3.706 million tons, the annual export volume of market is 53000 tons, the domestic industrial consumption is 0 tons, and the domestic edible consumption is 0 tons The consumption is 3.373 million tons, the total domestic consumption is 3.373 million tons, and the ending inventory is 280000 tons It is estimated that in 2001 / 02 market year (October to September of the next year), China's soybean crushing capacity will be 20 million tons, soybean oil storage capacity at the beginning of the period will be 280000 tons, soybean oil output will be 3.42 million tons, market annual import capacity will be 300000 tons, market annual import capacity from the United States will be 40000 tons, total supply capacity will be 4 million tons, market annual export capacity will be 90000 tons, domestic industrial consumption capacity will be 0 tons, and domestic consumption capacity will be 3.5 million tons Million tons, the total domestic consumption is 3.5 million tons, and the ending inventory is 410000 tons (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: