The present situation and Prospect of soybean market in China: bright future and tortuous road

Introduction: Beijing, Feb 1 news: on Friday, according to industry analysts and well-informed people, the soybean industry in Heilongjiang Province will grow in the next year, mainly due to the increase of domestic demand and the decrease of imports Heilongjiang Province is the main soybean producing area in China * according to the current situation of soybean market in Heilongjiang Province, in 2002, the soybean area in Heilongjiang Province was 28.65 million hectares, a decrease of 3667 hectares compared with the previous year, and the output was predicted to be 5.1 million tons Since the soybean was launched in October last year, the price of locally produced soybeans has remained depressed, mainly because imported soybeans flooded the market According to customs data, in 1999 / 2000, China imported 10.42 million tons of soybeans In 2000 / 2001, China imported 13.24 million tons of soybeans A large number of imported soybeans brought down the price of soybeans in the domestic market The purchase price of local soybean in Heilongjiang Province fell to 1480 yuan per ton for a period of time this year, 200 yuan lower than the same period in 2000 The shipping price of local soybean is about 1560 yuan to 1640 yuan per ton * genetically modified regulations have a significant impact on imported soybeans However, according to people familiar with the matter, there may be a turnaround in local soybean production this year Since the implementation of the genetically modified regulations on March 20, China is expected to significantly reduce soybean imports Strict management measures for genetically modified products require importers to provide safety certificates for imported soybeans and other relevant documents approved by the Ministry of agriculture before soybeans are allowed to be unloaded at Chinese ports At present, 70% of American soybeans are genetically modified soybeans, and 90% of Argentina's soybeans are genetically modified soybeans In Brazil, the government banned the planting of genetically modified soybeans, at least not in the near future This situation has caused some controversy in China According to the state seed association, it is estimated that about two-thirds of soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's third-largest soybean producing state, are illicitly grown genetically modified soybeans Therefore, it is impossible for Brazilian suppliers to obtain the required government approval documents to confirm that their GM soybeans have been planted and sold in the producing countries Moreover, the implementation of zero tolerance test to distinguish non GM soybeans in China means that Brazilian soybean suppliers are faced with a huge risk when transporting soybeans to China, and their soybeans may be tested positive for GM test * despite strong recent purchases, soybean imports are expected to decrease According to analysts from China national grain, oil and food import and Export Corporation, in recent weeks, domestic traders and importers have accelerated the pace of importing US soybeans China bought 340600 tons of soybeans from the United States in the week ending January 24, according to the latest export sales report released by USDA on Thursday morning In the same week, 230600 tons of soybeans were shipped to China, ranking first in terms of purchase volume and sales destination China has purchased 968300 tons of soybeans since January 7, when China issued measures to implement the genetically modified regulations, of which 755200 tons have been shipped to China Significantly higher than before January 7 If we add in last year's import figures, by the end of this week, the total import volume of us soybeans in 2001 / 02 market was 3.7582 million tons, down 13% from 4.3199 million tons in the same period of the previous market year According to analysts, US soybeans arriving in China in February are expected to exceed 1 million tons, of which 850000 have been shipped But in the second quarter of 2002, it was widely expected that the pace of imports would tend to stop, as it would take up to 90 days to finally get the safety certificate approved by the GM Office of the Ministry of agriculture * increased demand for soy products during the Spring Festival demand for soybeans and soy products will increase in the coming weeks, as during the Spring Festival, it is usually the peak season for refined edible oil and soy products With the development of China's economy in recent years, the demand for high-quality edible oil has grown steadily, which has increased the demand for soybeans Another positive factor is the reduction of imported soybean stocks in China's ports In the past few weeks, the stock has dropped significantly, and the current stock is less than 850000 tons Therefore, the development prospect of soybean industry in Heilongjiang Province is optimistic, and local soybean production will benefit from it in the medium and long term, especially the local government is trying to implement the soybean development plan to improve the yield and quality of local soybean But for some traders, the outlook is not always bright They are concerned about the lack of effective transport capacity to move soybeans from major production areas to coastal consumption areas In addition, the quality of soybeans is worrying These factors have led to imported soybeans occupying the Chinese market in the past few years On Friday, a trader in Beijing said the Chinese government was finally beginning to realize that they could no longer ignore the interests of farmers as they had in previous years However, under the WTO agreement, China will import more grains Technical barriers such as GM regulations can only protect local soybeans in the short term The key factor for the real development of China's soybean industry is to improve the competitiveness of local soybeans in the international market, both in price and quality.