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Since 2020, the wire drawing-copolymerization price difference of representative polypropylene varieties has narrowed significantly.
According to data tracking, as of October 15, the price difference between the two has narrowed to 100 yuan/ton
.
From the perspective of the average annual price difference, the average annual price difference between the two in 2020 is 384 yuan/ton, which is 15.
04% smaller than 452 yuan/ton in 2019, and 47.
33% smaller than 729 yuan/ton in 2018
.
In terms of supply, in 2019, the output of wire drawing was 8.
257 million tons, and the output of copolymerization was 5.
0372 million tons; from 2020 to now, the output of wire drawing was 5.
8598 million tons, and the output of copolymerization was 3.
8063 million tons
.
From the perspective of the average annual price difference, the average annual price difference between the two in 2020 is 384 yuan/ton, which is 15.
04% smaller than 452 yuan/ton in 2019, and 47.
33% smaller than 729 yuan/ton in 2018
.
In terms of supply, in 2019, the output of wire drawing was 8.
257 million tons, and the output of copolymerization was 5.
0372 million tons; from 2020 to now, the output of wire drawing was 5.
8598 million tons, and the output of copolymerization was 3.
8063 million tons
.
From the perspective of the average annual price difference, the average annual price difference between the two in 2020 is 384 yuan/ton, which is 15.
04% smaller than 452 yuan/ton in 2019, and 47.
33% smaller than 729 yuan/ton in 2018
.
In terms of supply, in 2019, the output of wire drawing was 8.
257 million tons, and the output of copolymerization was 5.
0372 million tons; from 2020 to now, the output of wire drawing was 5.
8598 million tons, and the output of copolymerization was 3.
8063 million tons
.
It can be seen from the figure below that in the third quarter of 2020 as a whole, the output of PP copolymerization was significantly higher than that of 2019.
Taking the situation of the week of September 24 as an example, the domestic output of PP low-melting copolymerization was 101,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 101,800 tons.
An increase of 120.
8%
.
Then approaching the National Day, the copolymer output showed a rapid downward trend, but the large increase in the previous copolymer output made the supply pressure of PP copolymer material increase year-on-year in 2020
.
It can also be seen from the trend chart of the daily production ratio of wire drawing and copolymerization that in late September, the production ratio of copolymer material was higher than that of wire drawing material.
Gradually widen the gap
.
From the perspective of demand, the two major industries of automobiles and home appliances, as the representative industries of the large-scale downstream of copolymerized polypropylene, have shown a trend of first low and then high this year
.
In the first quarter of 2020, China's auto market suffered a cold winter, with a significant year-on-year decline.
In the second and third quarters, production and sales maintained year-on-year growth, and the auto industry began to pick up gradually
.
The home appliance industry is similar.
In June 2020, the national output of household refrigerators was 8.
874 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21.
7%; the output of room air conditioners was 24.
903 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.
0%; the output of household washing machines was 6.
555 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.
3%.
%
.
However, cumulatively from January to June 2020, the national output of household refrigerators was 37.
593 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.
9%; the output of room air conditioners was 104.
149 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.
4%; the output of household washing machines was 32.
602 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 7.
2% %
.
To sum up, the production and supply of PP copolymerization in 2020 will increase year-on-year, while the production and sales of representative industries on the demand side will decline, and the contradiction between supply and demand will increase.
As a result, the price difference between the two drawing copolymers in 2020 will fall sharply compared with 2019 and 2018
.
