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Last week, aluminum prices fell slightly, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 18425 yuan / ton on the 19th, a weekly decline of 1.
6%.
Overall, the macro environment has temporarily warmed up, and pessimism has eased slightly, but sustainability may be lacking
.
Recently, major hydropower provinces such as Sichuan and Chongqing have experienced drought and water shortage, power outages in some areas, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum is tight; Demand in various industries picked up month-on-month, but the growth rate was slow and demand was weak
.
On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum production in July was 3.
514 million tons, +6% year-on-year and +3.
5
% month-on-month.
Production is expected to decline
slightly in August.
Electrolytic aluminum is still operating
at high capacity.
European electricity prices have reached a new high, which has a greater impact on the output of high-energy-consuming industries, if energy prices remain high, then European electrolytic aluminum production capacity may continue to decline
in the future.
On the demand side, the Fed has started the cycle of interest rate hike and balance sheet reduction, and the trend of overseas economic highs has been established, dragging down the overseas demand for electrolytic aluminum, but due to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the rise in energy prices has led to an amplification
of the supply gap.
Domestic demand still needs further efforts
from the steady growth policy.
With the expectation of overseas shortfall, the expectation of increasing the export of China's aluminum products in the later period has risen, and the current consumption is gradually recovering, and the demand for aluminum rods, plates, strips and foils has improved
.
In 2022, the investment in the power grid will reach 500 billion yuan, a record high, and this information will have a supporting effect on copper prices; In addition, the data of new energy vehicles in July is still bright, with passenger car sales in July being 1.
77 million units, and new energy vehicles are expected to be 450,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 102.
5%
In terms of inventory, aluminum rods and electrolytic aluminum restart the destocking rhythm
.
As of August 18, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 689,000 tons, down 01,000 tons
from last week.
At present, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Sichuan Province has been reduced by 395,000 tons, combined with the resumption of production in Gansu, Yunnan and other places, it is expected that the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity at the end of August will fall by 270,000 tons to 41.
13 million tons, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum will shrink in the short term, but in the long run, combined with the domestic provinces' electrolytic aluminum production plan, the future electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will still increase steadily
.
For aluminum prices, the production reduction has further strengthened the bottom support of aluminum prices, combined with the European energy crisis speculation, aluminum prices may show a strong trend in the near future
.
