Potash fertilizer: tight supply and demand singing all the way

　　In the first half of the year, the potash fertilizer market, which was in a tight balance between supply and demand, sang all the way
.
According to Longzhong Information data monitoring, as of June 30, the domestic potash fertilizer price rose from the lowest point of 3323.
81 yuan in January (ton price, the same below) to the highest point of 4821.
43 yuan in June, an increase of 45.
1%
.

　　Longzhong information potash fertilizer analyst Zhang Jie: supply is tight and prices are rising

　　In the first half of the year, the domestic potassium chloride market showed a continuous upward trend, and the spot price broke through the historical high
.
The average price of potassium chloride in China was 4,667 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 24.
79%
.
Although the import of potassium chloride was blocked and the domestic price rose sharply, the domestic potassium chloride manufacturers ensured that the price of potassium chloride rose slightly due to the policy of ensuring the supply of chemical fertilizers
.

　　The main reason why the potassium chloride market is booming is the tight balance of supply and demand in the market, and the supply of goods continues to be tight
.
Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international potash fertilizer market was tight in supply and the price rose sharply, thus affecting the domestic potassium chloride market
.
Not only that, the Belarusian Potash Company is also restricted by international shipping and can only rely on the China-Europe railway for transportation after the first quarter
.
At the beginning of the year, China and Canpotex, an international potash fertilizer supplier, set the standard import price of potassium chloride in 2022 at US$590 CFR, an increase of 139% over the previous year and a record high
.
The high cost of imported potassium chloride supports the market price, which sets the tone for the domestic spot price of potassium chloride to rise sharply
.

　　From a domestic perspective, before the Spring Festival, domestic potash fertilizer enterprises have successively entered the winter maintenance period, the operating rate is low, and the supply is tight
.
The rigid demand for large-scale spring ploughing across the country and the start of summer fertilizer preparation has further led to the continuous increase in the price of potassium chloride in the first half of the year
.

　　Zhongyu Information Potash Analyst Su Wenchao: There is little chance of a short-term rebound

　　At this stage, the overall price of potash fertilizer has reached a historical high
.
Superimposed that the price of the international potash fertilizer market has continued to decline recently, from the long-term domestic long-term analysis, the sharp drop in the price of potash fertilizer is an inevitable event, but the probability of a sharp decline or rebound in the price of potash fertilizer in the short term is not large
.

　　From the cost side analysis, the production cost restricts the current domestic potash fertilizer price
.
On the basis of the import price of potassium chloride CFR590, the cost price of large 60% red potassium is 4300~4400 yuan, and the market price of large 60% red potassium is 4850 yuan
.
Although there is a certain gap between the price and the cost price, the overall market price is not much lower than the cost price, so the signed import price of potassium chloride CFR590 is still the current domestic price benchmark
.

　　Compared with previous years, the number of border trade sources this year has increased to a certain extent, and the quantity of goods transported by Russian suppliers through border trade has increased overall
.
Since there is a certain price difference between the price of border trade sources and port prices, downstream sources are more favored by border trade sources than port sources
.
A large number of border trade sources have flooded into the market, which still has a certain impact on high-end prices in the short term
.
Although the recent July orders have not been signed, there are still previous futures sources that continue to enter the customs, and the short-term border trade potash fertilizer supply is still full
.

　　In addition, special attention should be paid to the domestic potash fertilizer market
.
At present, the overall operating rate of other potassium chloride manufacturers such as Salt Lake Co.
, Ltd.
and Zangge Mining is maintained at about 60%, and the supply to the market is still stable
.
Driven by the large salt lake plants as a whole, although the price of potash fertilizer has dropped slightly recently, the overall change in the third and fourth quarters will not be much
.

　　On the whole, the potash fertilizers in the third and fourth quarters may start a game around the supply and demand level, and the overall price fluctuations will fluctuate around the cost line
.

　　Zhao Yubin, Shanxi Regional Manager of China-Arab Fertilizer Co.
, Ltd.
: Demand has dropped and prices have been adjusted back

　　The price of potash fertilizer has dropped slightly recently, mainly due to the sluggish demand side
.
On the one hand, the current peak of fertilizer use in summer has passed, and the demand for potassium chloride in autumn has declined; on the other hand, the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the world's potassium fertilizer supply is decreasing
.

　　Belarusian potash production accounts for 20% of the world's production
.
From January to May, Belarus ranked second among China's potash fertilizer importers
.
After the logistics of transporting potash fertilizers from Belarus to China through ports in Lithuania and Ukraine was interrupted, the supply of potash fertilizers imported to China was tight
.
At present, Belarus exports potash fertilizers through Russian ports and railways, domestic imports and potash fertilizer supply increase, and the price of potassium chloride has opened a price reduction channel, which is expected to reach a low price in August and September
.

　　At present, the world is not at the peak of fertilizer use
.
Most of the border trade Russia and China-Europe Railway Belarus potash fertilizer will be sent to other provinces and cities, and even reach the area south of the Yangtze River, if there is no large demand in the Northeast market
.
In the short term, this will be negative for the potash fertilizer market
.
And under the influence of the downward price of nitrogen fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer in China, the enthusiasm of downstream purchasing demand for potash fertilizer has decreased, and most people in the industry are in a wait-and-see state
.

　　In addition, there are many uncertain factors affecting the price of potash fertilizer
.
In the fourth quarter, we also need to pay attention to the expectations and results of potash fertilizer contract negotiations in China, India, Brazil and other countries and the start-up performance of winter storage demand
.