Potash fertilizer: the momentum is like a rainbow, and the sound of "rising" remains

Editor's note: In the first half of the year, international crude oil prices were soaring.
The highest price of Brent crude oil was US$76.
18/barrel, and the highest price of WTI crude oil was US$74.
05/barrel, with a half-year increase of 46.
17% and 53.
11% respectively
.
Driven by the strong rise in crude oil, coupled with the gradual recovery of domestic and foreign economies, terminal demand has rebounded, the chemical industry's prosperity has rebounded sharply

Price hike

According to Qi Zhaoying, since the beginning of this year, domestic potash fertilizer prices have shown a linear upward trend
.

In January, the price of potassium chloride was mainly stable.
India suddenly signed a large contract of US$247, which disrupted the original market rhythm and some prices fell slightly.
In February, there was no obvious pressure on the seller, especially the raw material nitrogen and phosphorus rose significantly.
The price of potassium chloride is also showing signs of price increase; the price of potassium chloride officially started to rise in March, with a partial increase of more than 300 yuan; the market rise in April was not stopped but took a rest, mainly because the low-end price chased up, and the market appeared Some bearish sentiments, but large manufacturers generally continue to be optimistic about the market outlook; May gradually entered the off-season, the price of the same period in previous years has mostly declined, but the price of potassium chloride has risen again in the second half of the year, and the off-season surge has stimulated downstream demand.
June is the craziest month.
The single-month increase in the high-end potassium chloride price is close to 1,500 yuan, making this year's potassium chloride price hit the second highest in history, and the increase alone has surpassed that of 2008
.

Driven by the surge in the prices of potassium chloride and sulfuric acid, the potassium sulfate market has also fallen into a passive rise
.

"In the first half of the year, the leading price increase was 62% white potassium at the port.
Other potassium chloride increased slightly.
Potassium sulfate was mainly a cost-driven forced increase
.
In addition, imported potassium chloride and imported chlorine Mannheim's potassium sulfate, which uses potassium sulfide as a raw material, has a relatively large increase, while domestic potassium chloride and water-salt system potassium sulfate have a relatively small increase

Tight supply

Qi Zhaoying believes that the reason for the price increase of potassium chloride is the worry about the tight supply of the market outlook
.

"At the beginning of the year, the new large contract potash fertilizer price reached only US$247 per ton, and it was in a depression in the international market.
However, due to the obvious rise of international potassium chloride, foreign businessmen have expressed their opinions on the low-priced large contracts signed between Belarus, India and China from the very beginning.
Strong dissatisfaction
.
Facts have also proved that the international potassium chloride price has been rising in the later period, the high-end price has doubled, and the ocean freight price has also risen sharply.

　　In addition, under the background of the raging epidemic, food security has attracted unprecedented attention at home and abroad.
Higher food prices and increased farmers' enthusiasm for planting have led to an increase in fertilizer demand, resulting in a tight supply of potash fertilizer

　　Chen Li, director of the China Fertilizer Information Center, believes that the direct reason for the increase in potash fertilizer prices in the first half of the year was the shortage of available stocks in the domestic market, the suspension of sales by large importers, and the reduction in domestic supply, which led to price increases
.

　　"The price of nitrogen and phosphorus rose before potassium fertilizer.
At first, the price of potassium chloride's single nutrient content was much lower than that of urea and ammonium phosphate.
This gave potassium chloride a good opportunity to increase its price
.
In addition, the EU introduced a series of new measures.

　　There is still upside

　　"The international potash fertilizer market is still on the
rise , especially the recent low-end prices in Southeast Asia are being strongly raised by international suppliers .
With this support, domestic potassium chloride still has room for price increases, but it is unlikely that a similar situation will occur again.

　　"In the second half of the year, we must continue to pay attention to the situation of large contracts
.
If large contracts are signed early, prices may fall, and if they are signed late, prices may rise again, but the magnitude is not expected to be too large

　　Chen Li believes that in the first half of the year, the market for potash fertilizer showed a leap-forward rise, and the price reached a 10-year historical high
.
In the long run, the potash fertilizer market is expected to be stable and volatile

　　"At present, the autumn fertilizer preparation is starting and advancing, but the market supply will not increase significantly in the near future, and the potash fertilizer market will continue to run at a high price.
It is not ruled out that there is still the possibility of continuous supplementary increases
.
" Chen Li analyzed
.