Poor fundamental performance Shanghai aluminum has insufficient upward momentum

In terms of external trading, since the National Day period, Lun aluminum rushed to a peak of $2200, the highest to $2267, due to the lack of good news to drive, last week Lun aluminum gave up all the gains during the National Day holiday, Hydro Brazil alumina production capacity resumed, and European and American stock markets plummeted, Lun aluminum closed down for 6 consecutive days, The lowest intraday dip to 2017.
5 US dollars, after a continuous decline in the market, and the support of the Lun aluminum 2000 mark is obvious, short-term does not rule out the possibility of shock stabilization, but the rise is limited, it is expected that next week Lun aluminum shock stability, the fluctuation range of 2000-2080 US dollars
.

In terms of the market, traders entered the market more actively at the beginning of last week, and the sentiment of moving goods was high, but with the sharp fall in aluminum prices, merchants were more cautious, and the demand of downstream enterprises in the peak season was less than expected, and they maintained the on-demand procurement strategy of bargain hunting, and the overall transaction was average
.

East China, the price of aluminum at the beginning of the week rose without success, and in the next few days due to the collapse of the global stock market, the loosening of the cost of electrolytic aluminum and other unfavorable factors declined, as of Friday, East China spot aluminum between 14150-14190 yuan / ton, hit a new low since July 27, 2018, down 100 yuan
from before the National Day.

In South China, as of Friday, the price of aluminum ingot tickets in South China was 14430-14530 yuan / ton, down 140 yuan from before the holiday, and the decline was wider than that in East China; Due to price instability, the willingness of downstream stocking in South China was not high after the holiday, and as the price stopped falling on Friday, the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises to stock up increased, and the transaction improved
.
In addition, the processing fee of aluminum rods in South China is sluggish, coupled with relatively weak demand, aluminum rod factories have the intention
to reduce production.

Inventory, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory during the week, Shanghai area 355,000 tons, Wuxi area 691,000 tons, Hangzhou area 96,000 tons, Gongyi area 118,000 tons, South China Sea area 249,000 tons, Tianjin 55,000 tons, Linyi 24,000 tons, Chongqing 25,000 tons, consumption of aluminum ingot inventory total 1.
613 million tons, an increase of 23,000 tons
from the end of September.

With the risk event subsiding, Hydro's alumina plant will resume production in the first half of 2019, and there will be a surplus of overseas alumina shortages next year
.
As far as the fourth quarter is concerned, overseas alumina still shows a shortage, and it is expected that overseas alumina prices will be volatile, but the trend is downward
.
The overseas alumina gap makes the growth of overseas electrolytic aluminum production still limited
.
Under the steady growth of demand, overseas inventories continued to perform in the fourth quarter
.