Pessimism on the news side eases copper prices are expected to be strong in the short term

Market review, domestic copper prices after more than a week of Spring Festival holiday closure, ushered in the open
.
During the holiday, London copper showed a trend of rushing high and falling, and the overall increase was not large, resulting in Shanghai copper not following the rise after the opening, and the overall price remained stable with the previous year, fluctuating
around the 48,000 price.
On the news, the market is concerned about the Sino-US trade negotiations in Beijing on the 14th and 15th, and the overall attitude is cautious and optimistic
.
With the increase in downstream starts, consumption will gradually increase to the reduction of inventories, which will support
copper prices.

Domestically, on February 14, the General Administration of Customs of China released data showing that in dollar terms, China's imports in January grew by -1.
5% year-on-year, higher than the expected -10.
2%, and the previous value was -7.
6%; China's January exports grew 9.
1% year-on-year, well ahead of expectations of -3.
3% and -4.
4%
in the previous month.
Export data grew rapidly, but February coincided with the domestic Spring Festival holiday and is expected to stabilize.

From February 14 to February 15, Liu He, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, Vice Premier of the State Council, and leader of the Chinese side of the China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, and US Trade Representative Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and other teams held a new round of consultations
in Beijing.

Internationally, on February 14, the US retail sales monthly rate in December 2018 recorded a "boom" of -1.
2%, the largest decline in nine years, mainly due to the year-end revenue decline across the board, indicating a significant slowdown
in economic activity in the current period.
After the data, Barclays lowered its forecast for US GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year to 2.
1% from 2.
8%, and JPMorgan Chase cut from 2.
6% to 2.
0%.

The downward pressure on the US economy has increased, and the market expects the number of Fed interest rate hikes to fall to 1 in 2019
.

In terms of the market, the Spring Festival holiday ended, and the willingness of merchants to raise prices increased
after the market opened.
The electrolytic copper premium on the spot market continued to rise, and by the 15th, the good copper premium had risen from 10 yuan at the beginning of the week to 160 yuan, an increase of 150 yuan
.
From the perspective of the past two days, the downstream has gradually returned, the activity of traders has increased greatly, the demand for good copper and flat water copper in the market has increased, and the transaction is more positive
.
The import profit window has never been opened
again.

The trend predicts that after the Spring Festival, the market will wait and wait for good news, copper prices will rise slightly and fall, and the center of gravity will shift
.
Sino-US trade consultations are underway again, and the news says that the US side intends to postpone the 90-day negotiation period, the market is expected to improve, and confidence has warmed up; In the short term, the pessimism on the news side eased, and copper prices are expected to be strong and volatile
in the short term.