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Unprecedented production and supply chain disruptions due to the pandemic are threatening the outlook for industrial metals demand, the trend of increasing domestic inventories has begun to turn around, and copper prices have rebounded
from low levels this week as the liquidity crisis eases and peripheral sentiment warms.
China's copper concentrate and refined copper imports in January and February were normal, scrap copper imports decreased sharply, and the current supply exceeds demand, but downstream enterprises gradually resumed work, power grid investment has repeatedly increased the scale of investment in more than a month, the trend of increasing domestic inventories began to turn around, and copper has fallen into the effective cost range
.
Copper prices rebounded as the liquidity crisis eased and peripheral sentiment warmed
.
In terms of stocks, London copper stocks continued to deteriorate this week, with a cumulative decrease of 4,150 metric tons to 223725 metric tons, a cumulative decrease of 1.
82%.
Shanghai copper inventories continued to decline this week, falling by 13,207 tons, or 3.
50%, to 364,040 tons
.
As a result of the pandemic, lockdowns have been issued in countries from Africa to Latin America, and most large companies have announced the suspension of copper operations, such as Chile's national copper company, which has suspended some project construction, and unprecedented production and supply chain disruptions are threatening the outlook
for industrial metal demand.
The slight decline in China's copper concentrate processing fees shows that the market is tightening and there is uncertainty
about future supply.
The overseas epidemic continues to ferment, and the upgrade of epidemic prevention measures in many countries has exacerbated concerns about economic slowdown, suppressing the outlook
for metal demand.
However, the Federal Reserve's announcement of an open quantitative easing policy, the progress of US economic stimulus measures, the easing of the liquidity crisis, and the acceleration of China's resumption of work and production have boosted market risk appetite, reducing dollar demand and causing the US dollar index to fall from a high level, supporting copper prices to rebound
from low levels.
Looking forward to the future market, the domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled, the economic and social order is being restored in an orderly manner, and the short-term impact caused by the epidemic will gradually ease.
The pandemic has forced many countries to adopt lockdown measures, and raw material supplies are decreasing; Explicit inventory peaks may appear, economic stimulus measures boost terminal demand gradually pick up, and grid investment is on the consumer side
.
However, external risks have not seen a significant turning point, copper prices are difficult to trend upward, and better consumption recovery is needed, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate next week
.