Periodical aluminum sideways Pay attention to the changes in the domestic epidemic

Recent macro-level news has suppressed the itinerary of aluminum prices, overseas, the IMF lowered its economic growth forecast, and domestic policy guidelines for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices reappeared
.
Whether the domestic epidemic can continue to improve, and whether the recovery of downstream demand can land as scheduled has become the key to whether aluminum prices can continue to
rise in the future.

From the micro data, the negative feedback of the epidemic is showing a marginal improvement, inventories have begun to degrade, and the downstream operating rate has also rebounded
.
On Monday, the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods was destocked, of which aluminum ingots were 24,000 tons from last Thursday, and aluminum rods were 12,000 tons
from last Thursday.
There will be an update on the social library data on Thursday, it is recommended to pay attention
.

On the whole, the main downstream demand for aluminum in construction, automobiles, and new infrastructure will not disappear immediately due to the short-term lockdown of the epidemic, and the probability is to move later, so even if the current aluminum fundamental data is still more deviated than in previous years, there is no need to be overly pessimistic
.
In addition, aluminum export profits are still abundant, although the recent internal and external prices began to stabilize and not further down, but the short-term domestic export advantage is still obvious, export increment in line with expectations
.

In summary, it is expected that as the epidemic improves, aluminum prices will continue to fluctuate and strengthen, but it is still necessary to be vigilant against the risk of worsening the
epidemic again.