Peak season fundamental support is still Aluminum prices remain high and volatile in the short term

Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate
.
Aluminum production is slowly increasing, Yunnan power rationing has a small amount of disturbance, the primary aluminum import window is open, and the overall supply elasticity is limited
.
Peak season consumption performance is acceptable, and aluminum ingot stocks are about to fall below
one million tons.
The fundamental support of Shanghai aluminum peak season is still there, temporarily treated with the high volatility in the recent operating range, mainly wait-and-see or pullback
buying.

On the macro level, although the higher inflation data in the United States has caused some concern in the market, the probability of the Fed's policy shift in the second quarter is not high, and the easing situation is maintained
.
Therefore, the macro background maintains a strong superimposed fundamentals, and aluminum prices will still be strong
.

On the supply side, Guangxi Baimine Debao, Tianlin and Gansu Zhongrui mainly contributed to the increase in production capacity, while the import window was opened again, while the energy consumption control in Inner Mongolia was better, the market reported that at the end of the second quarter, some of the production capacity was suspended or could be resumed, and the supply returned to the upward trend, but the weekend news reported that the recent power supply was tight, Yunnan required electrolytic aluminum companies to implement peak shift measures, it is reported that some of the existing production capacity has been affected, supply regeneration interference
.
Domestic demand has remained strong recently, especially after the absolute price pullback, procurement is obviously positive, coupled with supply disruptions caused by power problems, and fundamental support is strong
.

On the demand side, terminal automobile consumption due to the intensification of chip supply problems, limiting the demand of the automotive sector, the profits of the traditional casting alloy industry chain have also been greatly compressed, and domestic electrolytic aluminum has maintained a slight destocking trend, but the destocking rate may be lower than the same period of
previous years.

On the whole, carbon neutrality affects the supply expectation to continue, consumption is expected to be better, and the destocking cycle is in the
cycle.
It is recommended to participate in more ideas, pay attention to the mid-line dip layout and long opportunities, and wait and see
options for the time being.