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During the holiday period, a series of economic data at home and abroad performed poorly, the metal suffered a decline, and Lun Aluminum was under pressure to deliver a large position, recently closing at $1799 / ton
.
The first external drag, Shanghai aluminum on Monday has a high probability of opening low to make up for the fall, but peak season consumption is still there, and the supply bottleneck has not yet broken through, and domestic aluminum prices do not have the conditions for
a continuous decline.
On the macro front, U.
S.
economic data was mixed
.
In terms of news, the US Federal Reserve announced on the 1st that it would keep the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged at 2.
25% to 2.
5%, and continue to maintain "patience"
.
The US ISM manufacturing PMI actually recorded 52.
80 in April, 2.
2 percentage points below expectations and the lowest level since October 2016, compared with 55.
30
in the previous month.
U.
S.
nonfarm payrolls in April were sharply higher than expected, adding 263,000 versus 190,000 expected and 196,000
prior.
The unemployment rate was 3.
6% in April vs 3.
8% in the previous month and 3.
8%
expected.
In terms of the market, alumina prices rebounded and were highly limited
.
In terms of alumina spot, as of April 29, Henan first-class alumina quotation was 2780 yuan / ton, up 35 yuan / ton
from last week.
Shanxi first-class alumina quotation was 2785 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton
from last week.
Guiyang primary alumina quotation was 2735 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton
from last week.
Australian alumina FOB prices were $363/mt, unchanged
from last week.
The short-term progress of electrolytic aluminum production has accelerated, the demand for alumina has rebounded, superimposed on the reluctance of some large manufacturers, alumina prices have rebounded in the short term, but with the follow-up of subsequent alumina new projects, the excess situation of alumina has been strengthened, and the price of alumina has been suppressed
.
On the domestic supply side, due to the second quarter of the new production capacity release schedule is in the window period, the main increase comes from the resumption of production
.
In terms of resumption of production, the recovery speed of Weiqiao in Shandong is lower than expected, the preferential electricity price policy of 0.
3 yuan / ton in Qinghai Province has been implemented, and the resumption of production has been relatively smooth, and it is worth paying attention to the electricity price negotiation policy
in Gansu.
On the cost side, the short-term alumina price rebound of alumina is basically in place, the price of raw materials remains relatively stable, and the profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to continue; On the demand side, downstream consumption is still growing, but affected by stockpiling, the pace of destocking after the holiday may slow down
compared with before the holiday.
In the short term, the resumption of production is expected to accelerate, but the downstream continues to recover and quickly destock, and aluminum prices fluctuate
at a high level.
